QE3 = Market Overheated Alert (Key Reversal Indicator)

September 14, 2012

Yes, there is no risk in the world anymore as the powers that be have put a cushion underneath any fall. However, there is something called technicals and valuation that are also important to consider.

Below is a view of the new product line up for the TriggerPoint Research – Model Read more

Sina (SINA) – Looking Very Vulnerable At These Particular Levels

April 18, 2012

With all of the problems that Sina (SINA) has had with their Weibo service, it is no wonder that the stock price has been on a roller-coaster rise. The company has some solid fundamentals, but when there is any fear that the government in China will crack down on the use of personal blogging/tweets, Sina will often get a whacked square in the face.

We have been watching the shares move and notice that there is a Read more

Back to Spearman and The Bloomberg Trend/Stall Indicator (Heads Up!)

March 26, 2012

The Spearman Indicator is like the “boy crying wolf” lately. But let’s not get too comfortable/complacent.

We need to put into the proper perspective the level and the direction to see what we can determine from the signal. As we have discussed previously, the rolling-up or -over of the indicator, above/below the moving average is one important condition, but the level (above or below zero) is where the indicator is designed to provide a proper signal.

From the chart below, there is confirmation by Read more

Volatility Index: Has Fear Subsided or Just Seasonality

December 22, 2011

Levels of the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) have been steadily creeping lower.  Fear in our minds has certainly not subsided, despite the “Bazooka” introduced by Europe and the not so steady rise in equity prices.  We haven’t seen these levels of VIX (i.e. Sub 21) since July of 2011.  As a matter of fact, the recent pattern in the VIX is very similar to that of what developed between May of 2010 until April of 2011.  During this time period the market moved higher by approximately 25-30% after shaking out all the extreme volatility. Read more

Spearman Indicator Update: Nosebleed Territory

December 8, 2011

We have dusted off and brought out the Spearman Indicator a few times in the past. In particular, we are most interested in the time that the readings are getting extreme in either direction. Our last update, was on 11/25/2011 and it was just before the turning point. At that time, the Spearman did a good job of calling the condition and producing a buy signal.

Now the indicator is getting toward the top of the range that is considered to be extreme. It is important to note that it can stay at these levels for some time. When the Spearman crosses the moving average, that is the actual signal. Notice that the turn back in November occurred from an extreme position, signaling a potential buy.


Today’s reading is close, but not quite there. If there is a down day within the next 1 or 2, that should create a “sell” signal. While you could try to get ahead of it, there is no reason to unless there is confirmation.

In short, keep an eye on the action over the next couple of days for the S&P 500 in order to adjust your positioning.



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