SubscribeThe Fat Lady ain’t singing!
July 21, 2008
It ain’t over it seems. Apple (AAPL) aside, the big news after hours was American Express (AXP). The earnings are awful, the business is in the dumps and now AMEX wants to withdraw any 2008 forecast. Bloomberg reported:
Profit in the company’s U.S. card business dropped 96 percent to $21 million from $580 million a year earlier as provisions for losses more than doubled to $1.5 billion from $640 million. uncollectible debt in the unit rose to 5.3 percent of loans from 2.9 percent a year earlier.
After hours, my old friend Capital One (COF) was knocked for a loop on the news as well. The credit card industry has proven itself to be no better that two-bit loan sharks. They rape customers with exorbitant fees, ruin your life if you cannot pay and now lie to protect themselves. I am totally disgusted with the way they have handled themselves.
Still Diggin’ DUG
July 13, 2008
For the past several weeks, we have been adding to our position of UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (DUG) as we believe that the underling fundamentals for the Oil Sector are faltering. The fact that the price for oil is rising and DUG is rising continues to show that the thesis is solid. Here are some interesting points from economy.com:
* Rising energy prices have cut almost half a percentage point from real U.S. GDP growth in each of the past five years.
* The recent surge in oil prices is being powered by increased financial demand and not tighter underlying demand and supply fundamentals.
* Oil prices are expected to soon peak and to decline measurably by this time next year.
* Lower prices will allow the Federal Reserve to hold policy unchanged for the remainder of this year, and will help the economy find its footing by this time next year.
The fact remains that our general oil dependency will continue to prove difficult on our economy. More so, the fact that we cannot keep our financial house in order will continue to show the world that ours in not an economy worthy of investment. Once more it is easy to see why our dollar is so weak.
Now, add that to the crude reality that oil and the dollar are tied together and it becomes obvious that unless we can figure out a way to cause the dollar to strengthen, there will be higher oil prices to come. No matter, it is becoming clear that oil companies are still tied to the global economy and we are finally seeing the dislocation of oil prices to oil company share prices. Therefore: No longer will they be positively correlated.
Oil Index Set to Fall?
June 26, 2008
The ETF that tracks the US Energy Sector (AMEX:IYE) is starting to show signs that it may be ready for a real fall. As there has been a significant increase in the noise surrounding sky-high oil prices and regulators and politicians looking to increase oversight, they will surely end up trolling for a scapegoat.
Update 6/29/08 - Prof. Greenberger who has been testifying on Capitol Hill regarding the Enron Loophole is a Andrew’s guest on TDI Podcast #63. Listen Here
(CLICK CHART FOR LARGER VERSION)
Will that cause some of the recent froth to be lifted from the energy stocks? Maybe. Take a look at the index and think about the timing potential for ETFs that short similar indicators/indicies such as the UltraShort Oil & Gas ProShares (AMEX:DUG) which has a 200% negatively correlated price to the Dow Jones Oil and Gas Index. We have been adding that position to client portfolios recently.
The chart shows a recent break below the 50 day for IYE. All things considered, I keep on recalling the phrase: Trees do not grow to the sky.
Thoughts?
Disclosure: Clients of Horowitz & Company are LONG DUG at the time of publish.
TDI Episode 62: Bye Bye Mr. American Lie
June 22, 2008
Guest: Zach Scheidt, Hedge Fund Manager. We discuss the IPO market and Andrew is back on his soapbox on the Lehman letter saying that a big part of the problem is the lies and PR spin by the financials. We answer some listener questions and get into a few hedging ideas with the use of ETFs. We even dare discuss the idea of shorting the DJ Oil Index!
Zach Scheidt is the founder and Managing General Partner of Stearman Capital, LP. After graduating with honors from Lee University, Zach attended Georgia State University at night while beginning his career in the securities industry. He then received his MBA in 2001 and also achieved the Chartered Financial Analyst designation in 2003.
LISTEN TO PODCAST | LISTEN @ ZUNE - @ iTUNES
Note: Zach’s IPO/New Issue Hedge Fund is available for qualified investors.
Zach is an avid writer (you have to subscribe to his blog) and periodically publishes articles on individual securities as well as sector and general market themes. He is a regular contributor to Seeking Alpha and has been quoted in numerous financial publications including the Wall Street Journal, TheStreet.com and Yahoo Finance. A participating member of the Atlanta Society of Financial Analysts, Mr Scheidt maintains an active profile in the Atlanta investment community. Also, read Zach’s excellent article on Hedge Funds….
This podcast is brought to you by Audible.com. Download a free audiobook of your choice today HERE
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Stocks and other mentions: (DUG) (DIG) (AAPL) (YHOO) (COF) (LEN) (BIDU) (LEH)
ChartFest: Homebuilders or Ski Slopes?
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Lehman’s Private Letter to Limited Partners
Lehman’s Private Letter to Limited Partners
June 13, 2008
Lehman Brothers (NYSE:LEH) sent another “feel-good” letter to their clients that hold positions in Lehman sponsored partnerships. This is not the first of these smokescreens that Lehman published in an attempt to take our eyes off of the real problems. Is it me or is it terribly concerning how gullible many of these companies believe that we are. I still have not hear an apology for the blatant and disrespectful lies misinformation that was promoted by the overzealous PR team over at Lehman HQ. Below is the June 11 letter and my comments….
LEHMAN BROTHERS
399 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022 TELEPHONE (212) 526-0977 FACSIMILE (646) 758-4269
MICHAEL J. ODRICH, MANAGING DIRECTOR, HEAD OF PRIVATE EQUITYDear Partner:
As the second quarter comes to a close, financial markets remain under stress. Actions taken by the Federal Reserve have provided additional stability for capital markets, although the operating
environment has yet to revert to what we would consider normal. We write to discuss how Lehman Brothers has been impacted and to reiterate our confidence with where we stand as a Firm.My comment: Did they say confidence?
Click here to read the rest of the article on MSN Money/Top Stocks
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