Economics to know for Friday Morning

August 6, 2009

Here is how the employment numbers are shaping up:

This week we saw the ADP employment numbers and they were slightly worse than anticipated. That shook the markets on Wednesday. Then on Thursday, we saw the weekly initial jobless claims numbers and while they were better than expected (550k vs. 580k estimated) the continuing claims were revised showing that actually more people were continuing to receive unemployment benefits and the actual number for this week was 29,000 higher than estimated.

Now, on Friday morning we are looking at a very important number that provides us with the “official” unemployment rate as well as the change in total non-farm payrolls for the month. While this number has been steadily moving down since March, we are still seeing a good amount of additional people out of work as the rate is now at 9.5%. It is estimated that that will go to 9.6%. Read more

TrimTabs: Expect Bad Employment Numbers?

July 2, 2009

Here is a shocker… TrimTabs is warning of a bad number that is coming ….

TrimTabs Estimates U.S. Lost 472,000 Jobs in June, 24% More Than 380,000 in May
Wages & Salaries Dropped 5.8% Y-o-Y in June, Steeper Than May’s 4.8% Y-o-Y Decline

Sausalito, CA – July 1, 2009 – TrimTabs Investment Research estimates that 472,000 jobs were lost in June, 24% more than the 380,000 jobs shed in May. TrimTabs also reports that wages and salaries are dropping much more rapidly than the Bureau of Economic Analysis is indicating. Read more

Talk Talk Talk – Turning the Corner???

July 1, 2009

We have had more pontification pundits these days than Carter has liver pills…..

It seems that almost every 1/2 hour another prediction is coming through by someone talking about the future and the hope of an economy that is showing signs of stabilization. Yet, why so much talk these days?

I mean to say that it is quite extraordinary that we see incessant predictions and postured outlooks daily  from every corner of the world. If you ask me….. I want to keep the noise to a minimum and simply look at the data objectively…. Maybe it will make us all beleive that the talk is more than just trying to make us feel better.

Here is more of the same….. Read more