SubscribeTDI Podcast 65: Psyched Out ?
July 13, 2008
Guest: Brett Steenbarger, Author of The Psychology of Trading (Wiley, 2003) and Enhancing Trader Performance (Wiley, 2006). I want to know…What is it that psyches-out traders? How can we overcome some of the trading pitfalls and the we explore what tools the pros do not use. Brett schools me…
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Brett N. Steenbarger, Ph.D. has been actively involved in the financial markets since the late 1970s. He has served as Director of Trader Development for Kingstree Trading, LLC in Chicago and currently consults with traders in a number of professional trading organizations. Visit his site HERE.
He is also Clinical Associate Professor of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences at SUNY Upstate Medical University in Syracuse, NY. A clinical psychologist and active trader, writer, and researcher for the past 20 years, Brett is the author of Enhancing Trader Performance (Wiley, 2006); The Psychology of Trading (Wiley; 2003); and numerous articles on trading psychology for print and online financial publications.
His book chapters on brief psychotherapy can be found in such reference works as
The Psychologist’s Desk Reference (Oxford University Press, 1998), Encyclopedia of Psychotherapy (Academic Press, 2002), Clinical Strategies for Becoming a Master Psychotherapist (Academic Press, 2006), and the forthcoming editions of Kaplan & Sadock’s Comprehensive Textbook of Psychiatry and The Handbook of Clinical Psychology. His coedited book, The Art and Science of the Brief Psychotherapies (American Psychiatric Publishing, 2004), has been selected as a core training text for psychiatry residency programs.
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The Week Ahead: A Few Nuggets
July 12, 2008
This week will be full of exciting earnings announcements that may actually show some promise. As investor anxiety grows, sometimes a stock will mistakenly get caught up in the hysteria/euphoria and shares will behave erratically. In these conditions, if a company can prove that it isn’t in imminent danger by showing a string of solid earnings in the face of financial adversity, investors will bid shares up with a vengeance.
There may actually be a few nuggets that will show up this week. Yes, even in a market that seems to whipsaw investors around daily, there may be a few good stocks out there. Even in the worst forest fire there is usually some form of life left that will help to bring life out of the ashes. With that in mind, here are few ideas to ponder:
Stocks: (SCHW) (C) (IBKR) (FNM) (FRE) (OXPS) (INTC) (EBAY) (COF) (GOOG) (MAT)
CNBC caused Bear Stearns Collapse???
July 2, 2008
Is CNBC responsible for downfall of Bear Sterns? In the upcoming issue of Vanity Fair, the collapse of Bear Stearns, that is the argument. On the morning of March 10th, CNBC began reporting a rumor that Bear Stearns was having liquidity problems. That sent shockwaves through the system and Vanity Fair’s author is proposing that CNBC was the root cause of the final collapse:
…Yet CNBC’s coverage remained anything but skeptical of the rumor. At two the network’s new “money honey,” Erin Burnett, headlined the hour by announcing “credit issues at Bear,” never mind that there was no such thing. She turned to correspondent David Faber, who observed, “Of course, no firm’s ever going to say that they are having trouble with liquidity, and, in fact, you’ve either got liquidity or you don’t. So if you don’t have it, you’re done. Those are the kinds of concerns in this market, concerns of confidence. You can have crises of confidence, causing meltdowns.”
By the end of the weekend, Bear Stearns was done. You know the rest of the story.
The destruction of a Wall Street giant all on an uncorroborated rumor fueled by CNBC correspondents that were more interested in topping each other than reporting the facts? Hard to believe, but who knows these days. Perhaps they took lessons from that NY Times writer from a few years ago…what was his name?
So, is CNBC guilty of this or just the messenger?
TDI Podcast 63: OIL-OIL-Enron Loophole-OIL-OIL
June 29, 2008
Guests: Prof. Michael Greenberger and John C. Dvorak discuss the Enron Loophole, the London Loophole and the skyrocketing price of oil. We also find out how closing the loophole could bring the per barrel price of oil down 25%!
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Since July 2001, Michael Greenberger has been a professor at the University of Maryland School of Law, where he teaches a course entitled “Futures, Options and Derivatives.”
Professor Greenberger was a partner for more than 20 years in the Washington, D.C. law firm of Shea & Gardner, where he served as lead litigation counsel before courts of law nationwide, including the United States Supreme Court.
In 1997, Professor Greenberger left private practice to become the Director of the Division of Trading and Markets at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Professor Greenberger has frequently been asked to testify before Congressional committees on issues pertaining to dysfunctions within United States financial markets caused by complex and unregulated financial derivatives. He has also appeared both in the media and at academic gatherings to discuss this subject, including appearances on CNN, ABC’s “World News Tonight,” the CBS Evening News, NBC Evening News, CNBC, MSNBC, The Jim Lehrer News Hour, NPR’s “Fresh Air,” and C-SPAN, where he also commented on financial dislocations arising out of the Enron collapse, the subprime meltdown, and the manipulation of crude oil and natural gas prices by unregulated energy traders.
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Additional Reading and Info related to this discussion:
MSN Article - House Passes Bill to Reverse oil price increases
Write You Senator, Copngressman or President with your concerns about oil
HUGE Listing (with emails) of your elected officials
* * Fill-in Form on Site and will Auto-Send to your Officials (COOL!) **
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ZachZone Stocks: Central European Distribution (CEDC), Energy Recovery, Inc. (ERII), Galiot Capital Corp. (GTC)
Stocks to look at from this episode: ProShares UltraShort Oil & Gas (DUG), ProShares Ultra Oil & Gas (DIG)
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On Oil and Manipulation
June 27, 2008
I have been following the Enron Loophole discussions and had a conversation with Sen. Feinstein’s office last week. I was looking for answers to the very confusing timeline of a bill that initially looked as if it was not passing, but was later attached to the Farming Bill that was passed after veto attempts. See more details here.
I believe my confusion lies with the fact that the “ENRON LOOPHOLE ” is part of CFTC Reauthorization Act of 2008, which is a title attached to the Farm Bill that was recently passed. There seems to be a good deal of confusion here as the Farm Bill was initially Vetoed and then overridden. THEN it was found that 35 pages were “missing” from the original bill that was already passed. Both the House and the Senate eventually passed it with with enough votes to override veto. It is now law.
To be honest, I am not sure I have seen such a level of obfuscation with any bill before, but that is just me I suppose.
Much of my focus of late has been the concerning fact surrounding manipulation and limited oversight of commodity future’s market…O I L !
In my research, it appears that The Enron Loophole was opened in what seems to be a less than honorable manner by Phil Graham when it pushed in as a last minute attachment to a bill as the Senate was trying to finish up for Christmas break. This is what has been blamed for helping to push oil prices up beyond the simple price/demand levels. In addition, since the loophole was opened, the Intercontinental Commodity Exchange (ICE) has been trading oil futures without U.S regulatory oversight. This is precisely what the CFTC Reauthorization Act was designed to fix.
Just as I thought the bill’s passage has been able to close the door on excessive leverage and other manipulations of the oil futures market, I find out that it somehow does nothing of the sort. The loophole is closed, but only for the natural gas markets! HUH? How did that happen?
Well, there is now good news for those that believe that oil prices have moved well beyond any normal pattern. The House of Representatives has approved a bill on Thursday, June 26 that would provide for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CTFC) to enact emergency measures to “maintain or restore orderly trading.”
There has only been four times before that the CTFC has been able to utilize these broad powers and in their own words:
“The Commission has exercised its emergency powers in response to extreme events, such as manipulation or a specific disturbance that caused a sudden shock to the markets. The CFTC has never exercised emergency powers based on price trends that have developed over months or years.
Go get ‘em!
Note: Make sure to listen to The Disciplined Episode Podcast # 63 as we have Professor Michael Greenberger, former CTFC Director of the Division of Trading and Market to discuss his fight against the Enron Loophole and the speculative manipulation within the oil future markets.
(Click here to subscribe via iTunes to get the
Greenberger interview as soon as TDI Podcast #63 is released)
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