TDI Podcast 206: Market Signals, Government Participation and McClellan Indicators

April 5, 2011

Guest: Tom McClellan walks us through the current market trend and the outlook. We look into the directional indicators as well as the interpretation of some of his favorite market measures. In this episode, we dig into some of the recent buying activity within the equity markets by governments. YES GOVERNMENTS. A few listener questions are answered and then we discuss the coming economic reports that will be shaping investor’s appetite for risk.

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Indicators We Are Watching: A Bold Prediction on the Baltic Dry Index

April 19, 2010

Clearly there was a substantial shock to the markets when the SEC surprised all with a fraud charge against what many thought was the “untouchable” Goldman Sachs (GS). Whether this is going to be a catalyst that will change the sentiment or not will be tested over the next week or so. For now, earnings are coming in and companies have generally done well to contain costs and provide for nice beats as compared to expectations.

The real wild-card now (aside from Greece and other sovereign concerns) will be the Icelandic volcano eruptions. That is estimated to cost the airline industry upwards of $200 million per day that they are unable to fly due to the ash cloud that has spewed 25,000 feet into the atmosphere. (Surely global warming is to blame – wink). If the volcano does not rest for weeks, it could cause severe damage to many European economies.

But, materials and food must still be transported. So, there should be a rather significant surge in pricing and volume for alternative modes of transport. The Baltic Index could see Read more

Indicators We Are Watching: Earnings Season Trends and Direction

April 12, 2010

There is a distinct feeling that most are banking on the idea that nothing will fail No matter how poorly run, the amount of debt, the rating of the debt, or even ongoing losses can shake investors. Call it the moral hazard that Bernanke and Obama have created or call it the current reality. No matter, there is a definitive view that appears to have emerged with investors that 2008 was a one time (aka Black Swan) event that has faded as a distant memory.

Of course that thesis is tested on any day that markets dip as we see volume expand well above the days Read more

Indicators We Are Watching: Bulls In Charge / Volume Soft

April 5, 2010

Mixed signals after a good week for equities, on light volume. Perhaps volume does not mean that much anymore? No… It means something and we need to watch these trends of higher days on low volume and lower days on higher volume.

Watch for a change in the relationship of the U.S. dollar to commodities. The problems with sovereign debt and the appearance that U.S. growth is rebounding will help the dollar move higher. That has not been good for Read more

Indicators We Are Watching – Bank Index Flashes Gravestone Doji

March 29, 2010

There has been a change in sentiment that appeared last week and that shows up well in charts. The S&P Banking Index turned from a breakout late in the week and provides a bearish signal (Gravestone Doji). In addition, the S&P 500’s reversal has an inverted hammer candle with a lower follow-through…

Scroll to bottom or click HERE for Bank Index Chart.

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Several other indicators are also providing a break in the Read more

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