How we pick ’em for the MSN Strategy Lab

August 18, 2008

QuantaFundaTechna is the short name I found best to describe the process we use to uncover the stocks that will eventually qualify for portfolios. Just as is described, the first step is to find stocks that meet certain requirements based on several screening, or quantitative criteria. For the core portfolio, initial candidates will be selected from an active screen filtered for size, sector, earnings growth, rating, corporate structure and price momentum.

Several key fundamental overlays are then added to further refine the list. Read more

The Strategy Lab #18 is Now Open…Andrew has 100k to Spend

August 1, 2008

The MSN Money Strategy Lab 18 is open for business and I am one of the participants that will be managing a portfolio. Here is the explanation from the MSN Money team:

For about a decade now, we’ve selected top investing pros with different strategies for a friendly sort of competition. It’s more an educational effort than a contest, so think of it as a demonstration sport.

We set up the investing pros with mock $100,000 portfolios and some simple directions: Outline your strategy for our readers. Trade for six months, explaining each move to teach people how you work. Use your methods to make as much mock money as possible.

In the end, we award bragging rights and ask the top players to return, along with three new faces.

Over time, the average player’s average return has been about twice that of the market. But there are usually some big gains and sizable losses — because no strategy works all the time — but there’s money to be made,
somehow, in any market.

And usually, most of our players find a way. In fact, in Round 17, all of our players topped the S&P 500.

Check it out and be sure to bookmark this: MSN Strategy Lab

Andrew’s Strategy is HERE and General overview and outlook is HERE.

Make sure to bookmark the PORTFOLIO PAGE though I will provide general updates here.

TDI Episode 50: The Analysts are Wrong (DUH!)

March 30, 2008

Guests: Adam Warner, Professor Woolridge and Gal Arav. In this episode, we explore three topics of interest. First we get the lowdown on options with Adam Warner. Then we find out from Professor Woolridge that stock analysts usually predict earnings to be higher than they actually are. Finally, Gal Arav introduces his newest technology wonder, Newsflashr.

Guest Info and Bios:

Adam WarnerAdam Warner is a proprietary option trader
with Addormar Co, Inc. He traded as a member of the American Stock Exchange from 1988-2001, and in several off-floor locations since then. He co-wrote the options column on Street Insight from spring 2003 to spring 2005, and currently writes a blog – The Daily Options Report – dedicated primarily to education about options. In addition, he is a “Professor” at Minyanville, writing a regular roundup column. Adam graduated Johns Hopkins University with a degree in Economics.

Gal AravGal Arav is the founder and creator of InstantBull and Newsflashr. Gal’s developing faster ways to monitor huge amounts of news data. Following a successful run of investing in the stock markets, in 2006, Gal invested in his own startup company to create InstantBull.com, a time-saving stock research and message board aggregator. This came after several years of R&D at an MIT spin-off that develops eye-tracking devices where Gal was Product Manager. In 2008, Gal is once again striving to turbo-charge the Web with his latest news aggregator, newsflashr. Gal holds an Engineering degree from The Technion, Israel and a Master’s degree in Operations Research and Decision Theory from Tel Aviv University, Israel.

Randall WoolridgeDr. J. Randall Woolridge is a Professor of Finance at the Penn State, Smeal College of Business. He is a Goldman Sachs and Co. and Frank P. Smeal Endowed University Fellow and President of the Nittany Lion Fund, LLC. With expertise in investing and capital markets, he has published numerous books and articles including the popular stock valuation book, The StreetSmart Guide to Valuing a Stock. His research has been highlighted extensively in the financial media. Recently, he published a study: Wall Street Analysts Still Exuberant In Their Earnings Projections that we discuss in this episode.


Future Episode Guests: John Byrne, Business Week – Jordan Goodman, America’s Money Answers Man – Robert Reich, former U.S. Secretary of Labor

Andrew’s Book
The Disciplined Investor

Stocks Mentioned: (COF) (AAPL) (LEH) (SPY) (GOOG) (BSC) (SAFM) (SKF) (WM) (VM) (CROX)

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A Picture Tells a Thousand Points

March 11, 2008

The quick and the dirty of it: The markets (DJIA, S&P500, NASDAQ) are setting up for an ugly fall and investors are sensing it. The growing indigestion is pointing straight toward the support line of 11,635 for the DJIA. This particular point is a problem as there is no support shown during the past 2 years until it reaches 10,683. Also, a simple Fibonacci retracement (blue horizontal lines) shows that the DJIA has stayed close to the retracement points rather consistently.

That said, unless we see intervention that is decisive and convincing by the Fed, a breakdown is inevitable. Earnings, news and recent policy has not done anything to support the averages. This time, we need to see a full-court press that is a unified effort between monetary policy and government initiatives. Anything less that a miraculous plan pulled from Lincoln’s hat will be met with negativity.

(click to enlarge chart)
Dow Crash 2008 ?

TDI Episode 47: Knight to the Rescue

March 10, 2008

Guest: Tim Knight is founder of Prophet.Net, a wholly-owned online software company that was acquired by INVESTools in January 2005; he presently serves as Senior Vice President of Technology for INVESTools. His recently-published book, Chart Your Way to Profits, offers a solid introduction to both technical analysis and the ProphetCharts product.

Formaltim_2An active trader and chartist, Tim founded Prophet in 1992 to provide market data to self-directed investorsiTunes Subscribe using stand-alone technical analysis software. With the advent of the Worldwide Web, he envisioned providing the power of these expensive software packages with browser-based convenience – enabling traders to focus on their analysis, instead of worrying about software upgrades and database issues. His online technical analysis suite at Prophet.Net delivers on this vision and more.

In his trading today, Tim relies on technical analysis as the primary basis for his investment decisions, and he has leveraged his passion for the markets to fuel the innovation for which Prophet.Net is known. In fact, Barron’s and Forbes Magazine have consistently named Prophet.Net the “#1 Web Site for Technical Analysis.”

Before starting Prophet, Tim was Vice President of Technology Products at Montgomery Securities in San Francisco, where he led the development of an institutional online-trading platform. Additionally, he has held various positions in marketing management at Technical Tools and Apple Computer, and is the author of 20 computer trade books. Tim is a graduate of the Santa Clara University Honors Program and holds a bachelor’s degree in business management. He lives in beautiful Palo Alto, California with his family.


The Disciplined Investor

Listen in to this episode as Tim Knight explains his 3 rules:

  • Never Lack a Stop Price
  • Never Do an Ad Hoc Close
  • Never Act in the First Thirty Minutes

Charts that were discussed in this episode:
INDU Chart1
and INDU Chart2

Stocks Mentioned in this Episode : (AAPL) (QQQQ) (YHOO) (SAFM) (GOOG) (FNM) (FRE) (SPY)

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