June 13, 2007
The CROXcast. Crocs and eBay Short Idea Discussed. CNBC Challenge Cheaters. Listener questions answered.
It has been a long weekend of comments on the blog site for The Disciplined Investor. My analysis and comments on CROX seemed to have hit a nerve. In this Podcast, we discuss many of the comments and dig into the phenomena.
Clips from thestreet.com Cramer lovs Crox, ihatecrocs.com, wallstrip.com and technical traders, utube videos on Crocs and Dorcs are heard here too!
Read recent SEC documents on Insider Trades…Get a calculator and add up the shares sold by the Director of the Board:
Look at Previous Sales Activity…(see chart below) Read more
June 12, 2007
It is amazing that no matter what, there are those that will find a way to cheat the system. In an apparent technology flaw, players could actually trade after the market closed, profiting on earnings and other news releases. The ability to do so was recently uncovered as a few players became vocal when they noticed that several of the daily winners had been 100% accurate on all of their trades.
I am physically sick about this. First from the fact that there were many unknown contestants that may have been involved and second because of the hard work that I personally put in and the realization that the challenge is so incredibly filled with fraud. The biggest problem?:
CNBC may need to rethink the entire idea of this and retroactively cancel the entire game. There should not be a winner of this as no one can ever be clear where the cheating stopped and started. All involved with the design and management of this should be ashamed! (Not to mention that it was always a shameless act of promotion by CNBC)
CNBC Investigates Contest for Cheating
Morning Edition, May 31, 2007 · The financial news network CNBC announced it is investigating illicit trading in its own contest, called the “CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge.” The CNBC contest had 375,000 entrants, or so-called aspiring moguls. They each got a fictional trading account and $1 million CNBC bucks. It seems some of them were tempted to cheat — even with fake money. The grand prize: $1 million. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/19121769/
According to NPR: The financial news Web site TheStreet.com says it’s canceling the first round of its “Beat the Street” competition because of fraud. This comes a month after the financial news network CNBC announced it was investigating trading scams in its own contest, Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge. Contestants are speaking out about what went wrong.
May 13, 2007
We ended with a $375,000 profit!
The 10 week contest is over and we came out in the top one percent of all portfolios. The fact is that we were as high as 900 and dropped down only during the final 2 weeks while still remaining in the top one percent. Over 1,000,000 contestants have been involved with managing portfolios for the chance to win the $1,000,000 grand prize. CNBC even recruited “Celebrity Traders” and had them openly square off against each other.
Most of the “Celebrity” portfolios were broad based with a wide diversification of positions. They seemed to be playing it on the conservative side, clearly not wanting to be embarrassed by any big losers. Most of their portfolios stayed closed to the original $1,000,000 through the contest with a few making a late run higher to show good profits. (The celebrity winner, Johnathan Tucker ended with $1,280,55) Read more
May 3, 2007
CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge Update
The last week or so has proved to be rather difficult to pick a winner even in a thick field of news related announcements. Possibly due to the fact that there is no shortage of earnings announcements or just the simple fact that we are a bit off on the last few picks, the portfolio has been stagnant for the past 8 trading days!
No particularly bad trades have hurts us, but even as we have a return average approaching 9% per week, the fact is that there have been a few amazing runs that we plainly missed. Amazon and Baidu come to mind of major winners over the past two weeks. Both of these beat earnings and rocketed higher. It is a hellish reminder of how stocks were reacting back in 1998-2000.
Is it any consolation that these are two within the sectors that saw a reversal of fortune from 2002 through 2007? Not quite. In fact it is rather disconcerting that the same sectors that saw such an amazing move during the height of the last market top are seeing a similar boost from investors who are hungry for earnings acceleration.
May 2, 2007
TWO Stocks that could ROCK on news – well situated for a breakout. Review of current portfolio.
SPECIAL EDITION – CNBC MILLION DOLLAR PORTFOLIO CHALLENGE PICKS
Through 5/2/2007, the TDI CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio is up 10% ($500,000 profit). The past week did not provide any substantial gains, so we are going to re-evaluate the strategy and look to make some $$$$$…. VCLK and LVS are the buys for today. There is something interesting in VCLK, listen to the podcast and find out.
Take a look at these two charts as you listen to the podcast to learn about chart and technical analysis.