SubscribeThe Week Ahead: A Few Nuggets
July 12, 2008
This week will be full of exciting earnings announcements that may actually show some promise. As investor anxiety grows, sometimes a stock will mistakenly get caught up in the hysteria/euphoria and shares will behave erratically. In these conditions, if a company can prove that it isn’t in imminent danger by showing a string of solid earnings in the face of financial adversity, investors will bid shares up with a vengeance.
There may actually be a few nuggets that will show up this week. Yes, even in a market that seems to whipsaw investors around daily, there may be a few good stocks out there. Even in the worst forest fire there is usually some form of life left that will help to bring life out of the ashes. With that in mind, here are few ideas to ponder:
Stocks: (SCHW) (C) (IBKR) (FNM) (FRE) (OXPS) (INTC) (EBAY) (COF) (GOOG) (MAT)
ChartFest: Homebuilders or Ski Slopes?
June 21, 2008
The home-builders are really taking a shellacking. Pulte (PMH) and Toll Brothers (TOL) clearly look better than the others, though that is not saying much. There will be a couple of earnings releases next week which include Thursday’s release from Lennar (LEN) and followed on Friday by KB Homes (KBH).
We should get a better insight into how deep of a problem it will be for the next several months. I don’t have high hopes.. Do you? What are your thoughts? Are they coming back? Add a comment below…
(Also, check out the latest TDI Podcasts HERE)
Disclosure: Horowitz & Company clients may hold positions in the securities mentioned as of the publish date.
American Express (AXP): False Sense of Security?
April 25, 2008
It is no secret that I am no big fan of the bank and financial sector, particularly the consumer credit divisions. The numbers out from American Express Company (NYSE:AXP), show that during Q1 they saw a 6% decrease related to credit card losses and reported a significant increase in total spending and credit usage by customers. So essentially, they are lending more money during a time when they are seeing a higher level of delinquencies and defaults. (Scratching head…)
Bloomberg.com: Worldwide
April 24 (Bloomberg) — American Express Co., the biggest U.S. credit-card lender, reported first-quarter profit that beat analysts’ estimates as income rose overseas. The company climbed more than 4 percent in extended New York trading.
Net income from continuing operations at the New York-based company declined 11 percent to $974 million, or 84 cents a share, American Express said today in a statement. That’s 4 cents better than the average estimate of 17 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.
American Express, Capital One Financial Corp. and Discover Financial Services shares have dropped more than 25 percent in the past year on concerns rising U.S. unemployment will hurt consumers’ ability to repay debts. The damage at American Express was cushioned by a 30 percent rise in overseas profit to $133 million as customers spent and borrowed more.
The biggest dislocation I see is still in the future outlook as compared to the stock price for many of the constituents within the banking sector. With all of the downgrades along with the fact that we are seeing a historic rise in defaults, what is it that I am not seeing? BEFORE you answer that, whatever you do, don’t tell me that the worst has been priced already as that is not possible. There has got to be something else as there are reports, predictions and further “shoes” to drop from eco-space.
Chart Courtesy of E-Trade: 1 Year AXP:
What is in store for Apple?
April 23, 2008
Excerpt from my recent post at AOL Finance/BloggingStocks for Apple Computer Inc:
Apple (AAPL)… The name is synonymous with high-tech and high touch. They have surely been on a roll…No need for me to tell you that. Tonight, is the real deal, the make it or break it. The question of whether the economic slowdown is going to have any real effect on Mac, iPhone and/or iPod sales.
The word is that iPod sales have been declining because of the continuing increase in iPhone sale. Why would anyone want a traditional iPod if they can have it all with the iPhone or iTouch anyway? This is no news to anyone that follows Apple. So, what do you say we discount that conversation entirely.
Macbook sales have been on fire. The latest update to this line has sent PC laptops to the junkyard as potential buyers who were on the fence have gladly jumped over, head first. (Disclosure: I am a happy jumper!) To the delight of most users, the most concerning aspect of the transition was painless. The fear of not having a Windows machine was put to rest as companies like VMWare (VMW) provided virtualization programs that allowed for a seamless experience within a dual operating environment.
CLICK HERE FOR COMPLETE ARTICLE ON AOL FINANCE
Name that Picture: GoogleVomit?
April 18, 2008
I received a few emails from irate readers who told me that SOLD out of Google (GOOG) before the earnings release because Louis Navellier’s newsletter suggested there could be problems. Also, I read a few more about Cramer’s comments that told his audience to hold off until Google trades below $400. (it could with a 3/2 split I suppose)
I thought it would be fun to come up with some witty (or not) names for this picture…
- I sold naked calls into the close
- The Cramer Effect
- 4 short, 1 Long
- The Revenge of the GooG
- GoogleVomit: The art of shorting
…Have fun!
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