SubscribeVideo: 10 Stocks that could Retest Their Lows
April 28, 2009
Here is S&P’s Sam Stovall discussing his thoughts on which stocks could get hit the hardest if we retest the November/March lows.
Video: Mutual Fund Companies are Dinosaurs
April 23, 2009
Here I am ranting about mutual fund companies again….
[flv]http://www.thedisciplinedinvestor.com/blog/video/mutualfunds2.flv[/flv]
Commerical Real Estate Time Bomb
April 16, 2009
We are on a unstoppable trajectory toward higher foreclosures and exploding delinquency levels than have been seen in decades. The change over the last few months has been startling and the East coast states are holding many of the top position with Rhode Island leading the list during the past few months.
We have seen the 90 day+ delinquency rate for properties go from a weighted average of 0.09% in May of 2007 and then to 0.25% in May 2008. Now we are seeing it approaching 1%. But the problem is really with the worst areas such as we see below. Read more
Hewlett Packard Disappoints in So Many Ways
February 20, 2009
From reading many of today’s corporate financial press releases, it is difficult to imagine that any company is actually suffering in a collapsing economy. Carefully chosen words and phrases such as: record earnings, best quarter in history, upbeat outlook and better-than-expected are all expertly placed within well crafted announcements to put a positive spin on news items intended for public consumption. Corporate America has always had the softest touch when delivering bad news and Hewlett Packard (HPQ) seems to be no exception. In fact, it seems that the company has added a new way of providing earnings’s guidance: simply re-affirm positive earnings per share and revenue guidance and then deal with the potential problems of a weak economy later.
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Although many corporate communication plans may be designed to confound and confuse, it is important that you as an investor understand how to read between the lines. Read more
Why We are Short Exxon
February 17, 2009
This is a recent post from the TDI Managed Growth Strategy blog. We use the site as a conduit to provide regular updates to our clients in an effort to provide transparency as well as education….
Here is a chart that we are looking at with regard to Exxon Mobile (XOM). As you know, we are short Exxon Mobile and working a paired trade with our long position of the ProShares Ultra Oil (UCO). Only the former for the group is working out as it has become apparent that the flight to safety with investors that are desirous of investing in the oil sector may be fading.
(For a 10-day test drive of the TDI Site, send an email to us and we will get you set up)
( As a side note; the position in UCO has become an increasing concern as it is not operating correctly, as we see it. It is no longer highly correlated to the index and we will be moving quickly to determine if it will remain in portfolios)
Lately, Exxon Mobile has been a good stock, relatively, especially in this difficult time for the markets. I say relatively as it has been somewhat resilient in the face of a massive earnings falloff for the entire sector. Comparing the earnings to other competitors reveals that Exxon is running on fumes. The technicals shows us that a break below $73.32 may trigger programmed sell. In fact, This actually occurred today and the position is trading at $71.60 as of now. Read more
