SubscribeIndicators We are Watching – 3% Mutual Fund Cash is Troubling
March 15, 2010
By several measures, equity markets are beginning to overheat. Yet, this has been the standard move that has been seen since the March 2009 capitulation low.
In other words, markets move higher (and higher) without too much of a break in the action and then they pause, move higher with low volume, then quickly sell off hard for a 4-6% drop. Just as it appears that a trend lower is confirmed, buyers show up and help to vault equities higher.
Mutual Fund Cash Balances - ICI
But that buying may be drying up as mutual funds now have depleted cash Read more
Indicators We Are Watching: This Week – Up to Start and Down to End
March 8, 2010
Many of the indicators we watch have been pointing toward a break higher for markets along with commodities. There have been a few that were stuck in neutral while others were flashing BUY.
One of our favorites have been the McClellan Oscillator along with the NYSE Advance/Decline oscillator, the latter we created. Both of these have moved up in a very sharp trajectory and that is usually sign of a market that is overheating.
It appears that the relief over Read more
Indicators We Are Watching: An Apathetic Condition
March 1, 2010
Volume is one of those indicators that cannot be ignored. It does not show an overbought or oversold signal and it does not oscillate. What it does do is provide a measure of conviction for a market and a better reading on investor sentiment.
Most recently, it almost seems that there is an apathetic mood as investors are awaiting for equity markets to break one way or another. During that time (since December 2009), volume has been Read more
Indicators We Are Watching – Low Volume Rally is Suspect
February 22, 2010
The low volume rally for major indicies does not provide a clear direction as there is limited conviction by the bulls. Even so, several indicators turned higher as the recent correction allowed a lift from an oversold condition.
Oil is hitting hard resistance and the U.S. dollar finally broke above key resistance. This week will probably show Read more
Indicators We Are Watching – Bullish Signals for Metals? (GLD) (SLV)
February 16, 2010
Over the past few weeks, the U.S. Dollar has been strengthening. This is in direct response to the EuroZone’s problem with the PIIGS and a flight to safety. In reaction, metals have been drifting lower as have been most commodities.
Yet last week we finally saw the correlation break (dollar up, commodities down) EU responded with a helping hand to Greece that somewhat calmed investor’s jitters. If the U.S. dollar begins to drift lower, there is a good possibility that there will be a short-squeeze reversing the recent trend for gold (GLD) and other Read more
