Guest Post (DAS) : Is Cyprus More Important Than You Think?
April 4, 2013 11:45 am
Satyajit Das has been on the TDI Podcast many times and is a listener favorite. He brings a common sense approach to his work along with an impressive resume. Das is an avid researcher and writer and just published a very compelling piece related to the problems in Cyprus. (Links to Das on TDI Podcasts)
By Satyajit Das
In 1938, British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain’s 1938 decided to ignore “a quarrel in a far-away country between people of whom we know nothing”. The world has now convinced itself that Cyprus is simply not systemically important. They may be proved wrong.
Firstly, the package for Cyprus remains vague pending analysis by the Troika – the European Union (“EU”), the European Central Bank (“ECB”) and the International Monetary Fund (“IMF”). Based on press reports of rising losses for the Cypriot banks, the problems may be worse than imagined, requiring changes to the bailout or making it unworkable.
The Church of Cyprus is contesting the legality of some measures taken under the European Declaration of Human Rights which makes the expropriation of property illegal. There is a risk of further legal challenges.
Secondly, as with Greece, the package may not work. The crippled financial system as well the effect of capital controls and uncertainty on tourism will mean, at best, a prolonged recession. This will make it impossible for Cyprus to meet targets and re-pay the bailout debt, necessitating further assistance and/ or future debt restructuring.
Thirdly, the guarantee of small depositors (up to Euro 100,000) is from the insolvent Cyprus government. EU bailout funds cannot be used to support the banking system, which urgently needs a capital infusion.
Small depositors are also affected by “temporary” capital controls. Residents cannot withdraw more than Euro 300 in cash per day. Local businesses have to limit transactions to Euro 5,000 a day. Credit card transactions are limited to Euro 5,000 a month. Travellers cannot take more than Euro 1,000 in bank notes out of the country per trip.
Capital controls may need to be in place for a prolonged period. They are still in place in Iceland over 5 years after introduction.
Small depositor’s cash remains trapped and at risk in any future restructurings.
Fourthly, the EU’s “new” position towards bailouts, shifting losses onto shareholders, bondholders and depositors, is unworkable.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s statement that policy has always been that taxpayers can’t save banks and that this remains the case for Cyprus represents a revisionist view of history.
To date, European, as well as the UK and US, governments have protected all creditors including subordinated bondholders of failed banks to avoid the risk of contagion and triggering a wider financial crisis. Germany bailed out depositors in IKB. Similarly, the government did the same for major Dutch banks until the recent case of SNS. There have been minor exceptions in Denmark, Ireland, UK and Spain.
Alternatives such as Cyprus leaving the Euro and restructuring it bank and sovereign debt were ignored to avoid losses to the ECB on its Euro 9-10 billion exposure to Cypriot banks and to European banks on holdings of Cypriot government bonds.
As in previous European bailouts, the funding is mainly to be used to refinance existing debt owed mainly to European banks and investors. About Euro 7.5 billion of the proposed Cyprus package will be applied in this way.
Whatever its merits, allocating losses to investors and bondholders may prove challenging in practice.
European banks own Euro 692 billion of Spanish government bonds and Euro 832 billion of Italian government bonds. They also still own Euro 791 billion of Greek, Irish and Portuguese bonds. The ECB has purchased over Euro 200 billion of European sovereign debt, primarily that of Italy and Spain, as well as lending over Euro 1 trillion to European banks secured by sovereign bonds.
Any attempt to write-down bank or sovereign debt of troubled nations would result in large losses to European banks, mainly in the Northern European countries. The EU has conveniently forgotten that the bulk of Cypriot bank losses resulted from write downs to loans to the Greek government, overseen by the EU.
Cyprus has merely highlighted Europe’s “doom loop” linking European banks and sovereigns. This will make it difficult to pursue the policy that investors must be accountable for the risk they take, recently articulated and then quickly disavowed by Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the President of the Euro-Group.
Fifthly, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble’s position that “savings accounts in Europe are safe” contrasts sharply with his earlier statement that deposit guarantees were “only as good as a state’s solvency”. The absence of a Europe wide deposit insurance scheme and lack of funding for recapitalisation of banks (both opposed by Germany) means that all depositors are vulnerable, continuing the risk of capital flight.
Sixthly, the accusations of Cypriot money laundering and tax evasion to justify the structure of the package merely expose the EU’s politically expedient hypocrisy. The EU and especially Germany wants to prevent any bailout funds flowing to Russian depositors, such as oligarchs or organised. However, as of January 2013 Euro 43 billion of the Euro 68 billion in Cypriot bank deposits were from domestic residents, although a portion may be from overseas depositors. There are there are around 60,000 British retirees and 40,000 Russians living in Cyprus.
Cyprus is not alone in its large banking system, involving substantial levels of offshore deposits. Luxembourg’s bank assets are over 21 times its GDP, Great Britain and Switzerland’s bank assets are over 5 times GDP and Malta’s is comparable to Cyprus.
Cyprus is a low tax jurisdiction not a tax haven. Tighter controls over money laundering were a pre-condition to EU entry. These problems have not previously prevented the ECB from offering emergency funding assistance to Cypriot banks.
Many Western economies, including Britain, Germany and France, have benefitted from flight capital from various parts of the world, including Russia. A number of Western banks have been found to have had illegal dealings with unsavoury interests including narcotics dealers and rogue states.
In January 2008, Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the ECB at the time, was loquacious in his praise of Cyprus: “Today’s euro celebrations are the result of the successful macroeconomic policies that the Cypriot authorities have pursued in recent years … The ECB and the Central Bank of Cyprus, together with the National Changeover Board, the European Commission and national and international authorities cooperated closely in many ways to prepare the introduction of the euro.” It is puzzling how Cyprus could have been admitted to the Euro-Zone if it encourages such heinous and odious financial practices as implied.
Seventhly, the EU deliberately used a recently enacted rapid resolution regime for distressed banks to avoid the need for Cypriot parliamentary approval. The subversion of democracy means rejection of the bailout remains possible. This is compounded by the fact that ordinary Cypriots are angry about what the the New York Times described as their “economic ex-communication” from the EU. This is exemplified by the two tier currency structure which indirectly devalues Cypriot Euros and the write down of some bank deposits.
For the EU, Cyprus represents the familiar continuation of its serially clumsy efforts to deal with insolvent banks and countries. It also continues the strategy of ensuring that embarrassing losses are deferred past crucial election dates or even more desirably until someone else is in power.
Cyprus also marks a new dangerous phase in dealing with current debt crises. The high levels of debt cannot be managed without resort to financial repression. To date, this has taken the form of higher taxes, interest rates below the rate of inflation, directed investment and increased government intervention in the economy. Governments are now seeking to shift the burden increasingly onto savers and investors directly by confiscating savings, such as bank deposits and pension funds (an option considered in Cyprus).
Contrary to popular mythology, deposits with a bank are always only as safe as the institution itself or the ability of the guarantor of the deposit, including governments, to meet any insurance obligation. In Europe, deposits of banks are backed by loans to highly leveraged governments, banks, companies and individuals with varying capacity to repay. The deposit guarantees are provided by the same leveraged governments.
The rapid resolution rules used in Cyprus to write-off bank deposits are part of new banking regulations adopted widely throughout the world. No savers or investors anywhere should take security of their assets as guaranteed.
Contagion, through capital flight, is now a real risk. As a Cypriot banker told a reporter: “… Luxembourg, Slovenia is coming … We should give them seminars on risk issues.”
While Cypriots labour in financial purgatory on their way to economic hell, citizens in far-away countries may reflect on John Donne’s words: “No man is an island, entire of itself …. never send to know for whom the bells tolls; it tolls for thee.”
© 2013 Satyajit Das
Satyajit Das is a former banker and author of Extreme Money and Traders Guns & Money