Stocktoberfest 2012 EXTRA!: SLM Corp. (SLM)

Monday, October 22, 2012 12:54 pm



This is a new name that just came made our highly filtered growth screen. With its recent earnings announcement, the shares have been under some pressure. However, in order to meet the criteria for this screen, the company must be doing many things right. Even as there is some clear distribution and the F|score is not as high as we would like to see, look for a good opportunity above the support of $16.50.

 

Horowitz & Company’s proprietary Fundamental Scoring System (F|score) takes into consideration many factors related to each company’s financial history and outlook. This system is oriented toward a growth model and therefore will give a higher score to those companies which continually show increasing earnings per share and revenue over time. Over the long-run (and when looking to purchase a security) we prefer companies with a track record of growth and solid fundamentals. In the short-term however, it is price / technicals that pay. When investing, we combine both of these analyses to seek out possible investment opportunities within our universe of stocks.

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Horowitz & Company’s proprietary Fundamental Scoring System (F|score) takes into consideration many factors related to each company’s financial history and outlook.  This system is oriented toward a growth model and therefore will give a higher score to those companies which continually show increasing earnings per share and revenue over time.  Over the long-run (and when looking to purchase a security) we prefer companies with a track record of growth and solid fundamentals.  In the short-term however, it is price / technicals that pay.When investing, we combine both of these analyses to seek out possible investment opportunities within our universe of stocks.This stock ranks below average in fundamentals and would not be considered an option that we would invest in the long-term.  For those with a higher risk tolerance, it is possible to enter a speculative position with caution as this market has been much about bottom feeding on the worst of the worst companies.See below for details on where this company thrives and possibly some of the drawbacks:We find that EPS Growth on a Quarter over Quarter basis is one of the strongest components when screening for growth stocks.

Continued EPS Growth in a company generally shows strength in leadership, the ability to manage expenses and improve the bottom line.  Over the last three quarters, this company has done exceptionally well producing EPS Growth Rates last quarter, 2 quarters ago and 3 quarters ago 106.25%, 27.66%, 75.86% respectively.

Revenue Growth similar to EPS Growth is also a strong component to consider when screening and scoring for growth companies.  Continued growth in revenue shows that the company is innovative, marketable and its products remain relevant in the marketplace.

Over the last three quarters, this company has not done as well producing revenue growth rates last quarter, 2 quarters ago and 3 quarters ago 20.15%, 40.17%, -8.08% respectively.

The 5 Year EPS Growth Rate has detracted from the fundamental score with as there were some negative years during the worst of 2007-2009.

Last quarter this company reported Earnings per Share 7.41% better than analysts had expected.  We believe this surprise, although only for one quarter, could set a trend for future earnings reports and guidance.

Horowitz & Company’s proprietary Technical Scoring System (T|score) takes into consideration both individual security technicals as well as the overall market direction when considering whether or not to purchase a company. H&C’s Market Trend Indicator (MTI) is a measure which is designed to evaluate the overall trend in the market.  There are four designated levels to assess the trend which include:  Strong Downtrend, Downtrend, Rally and Strong Rally.  We are currently in an environment where the MTI is in a Downtrend.All of our indicators are showing that the markets are attempting to rally out of a Strong Downtrend or have pulled back from a Rally.  Although one should still remain cautious when purchasing individual securities, this may be the time for those with a higher risk tolerance to begin to enter the market or add to those positions with a high level of technical scoring.With that in mind, this stock ranks in the mid to below average percentile of stocks from an individual security technical score.  H&C would not consider purchasing this position in any general market with the exception of a Strong Rally.  H&C would look to add a small position and add to that in a Strong Rally.Below are some of the key technical areas where SLM Corp (SLM) excelled or detracted from the value of the T|score:Stochastics are currently showing some bearish attributes which may mean this stock is slightly overbought in the short run.

In terms of price and volume especially over a short period of time it is important to see if there is any weight behind either a rally or correction. The stock has shown to have less than favorable price and volume action and may have a higher potential to move lower if the overall market and economy are to trend lower.  Higher volume with negative price also will provide resistance levels for this position if it were to rally back to these levels.

On a 12-month rolling period, this company has not performed as well when comparing against its peers and equities in the S&P 1500.  This is often seen as a potential negative sign as it shows weakness relative to the overall market.

H&C currently sees SLM Corp (SLM) in a Short Term Uptrend and Long Term Uptrend.

 

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