Retail Winners and Losers – WOW….

February 3, 2011 11:45 am does a great write up of the market action on a daily basis. Here is their morning take on the retail SSS that came out earlier today.

Generally, there is a LARGE disparity from the analyst expectations to the actual numbers. 10% or more in some cases. Below is the commentary from Briefing and under that is the history that we use to help us watch for trends that may be occurring.

Notice that this is one of the best YoY reports that has been seen for a while. The numbers are impressive.


Some cos that beat December Same-Store Sales estimates include (listed according to the magnitude of the beat)

  • Saks (SKS) 11.8% vs. 5% consensus, stock gapped 1.3% to $11.13 and closed up 4.6% at $11.50.
  • Abercrombie (ANF) 15% vs. 10.1% consensus, stock opened nearly flat but closed 3.3% lower.
  • TJX Cos (TJX) reported Dec comps of +2% vs. -2.8% consensus and raised Q4 EPS guidance. The stock gapped up 2.4% to $44.02 and continued to climb—up nearly 6%.
  • Ross Stores (ROST) reported Dec comps of +4% vs. -0.7% consensus and raised Q4 EPS guidance. The stock gapped up 1.7% to $63.72 and closed near that same level.
  • Dillard’s (DDS) 7% vs. 2.4% consensus, stock gapped up ~1% at the open and has edged higher—to nearly 4% on the day.

Some cos that missed December Same-Store Sales ests include (listed according to the magnitude of the miss):

  • American Eagle (AEO) -11% vs. -1.8% consensus, stock dropped 5.2% at the open to $13.72 but recouped losses among speculation surrounding the co’s cancelation out of a conference next week. AEO closed 4% higher.
  • Gap Inc (GPS) -3% vs. 2.4% consensus, stock tumbled almost 7% at the open and remained lower—ended down 6.9% at $20.70.
  • Wet Seal (WTSLA) -2.1% vs. 2.9% consensus, stock gapped 7.9% lower to $3.6 and was leading decliner by end of day at 12%.
  • Target (TGT) reported Dec comps of 0.9% vs. 3.9% consensus and said current Q4 EPS estimates are in reasonable range of possible outcomes (typical commentary), stock dropped 5.3% at the open to $55.81 and remained lower on the day.

Retail Same Store Sales 20110203

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