Bullet Points – FOMC Minutes (Color Coded)

August 31, 2010

There was clearly a mix of outlooks from the latest Fed meeting. There were also a few area that are difficult to determine wheter they are good or bad for the markets/investors.

For example, what does it mean that :

  • Fed Officials Saw Risk August Decision Would Send Wrong Signal

Could we infer that much of what they are doing is to hold up the markets in light of a Read more

Not To Be Seen: “Less Good” – Remember The “Less Bad” Media Days?

August 31, 2010

Now the “less good” readings we are seeing should be looked at as a sign that while still in expansion, it is slowing…right? But the headlines will not tell you that. Instead they will read: Chicago PMI Slows, But Remains Firmly In an Expansion Cycle or something to that end.

You tell me… Is this looking LESS GOOD or????

The media has a really warped sense of things.

Read more

Video: Shiller Sees Double-Dip Likely

August 31, 2010

In a recent interview for WSJ.com, Shiller is rather downbeat.

According to the interview:

With the U.S. economic recovery losing steam, the chances of a second phase of a slowdown are increasing, according to a leading economist.

Speaking in The Wall Street Journal’s The Big Interview show, Robert Shiller, professor of economics at Yale University, said he thought the second dip down of a so-called double-dip recession “may be imminent.” Read more

Links and Reading for August 30th

August 30, 2010

Some of the more interesting and important items for August 30th :

Right Now I’m Having Amnesia And Deja Vu – At The Same Time.

August 30, 2010

Each week we provide our clients with a commentary and review of our research. We discuss a good deal of the economic conditions and positions we hold or are looking at. It is all in the spirit of transparency.

(If you would like more information about becoming a client, click this link HERE)

Below is the opening of our latest weekly report:

If the comedian Steven Wright were writing this, I think he would say: Right now I’m having amnesia and deja vu at the same time. It is one of those times that there are eerie similarities to past events and others that appear out of nowhere.

Lookingdonkey back on the week, it is probably a good idea to start with the end and work backwards since it is where the deja vu part comes in. It was on Friday that the commitments, from both the United States and Japan, to save quickly deteriorating economies were revealed. Of course these came in the form of nothing more than feather-ruffling and chest-thumping thus far, but governments know that is pretty much all it takes to generate at least a small spark. In a speech at a central banking summit in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Fed Chief Bernanke was very careful to provide as much optimism as possible. In sharp contrast to his comments two weeks ago, he stated that the Fed had set no triggers for further monetary-policy easing and that he sees continued economic growth. (Fed amnesia?)

But, wait – that was also part of the same speech that Bernanke also noted that the Fed would do all it can to ensure growth. So, in effect, the Fed continues to believe that they are going to have to step up their efforts, but not just yet. Perfect! The ultimate carrot for the bulls. Call it the new Greenspan Put or the Bernanke Backstop, this is the new Read more

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