SubscribeTDI Podcast 165: Harry Dent – Depression Countdown
June 13, 2010 11:59 pm
Guest: Harry Dent, HS Dent and Andrew discuss demographic economics and the countries that are in danger of entering into a prolonged depression. On the top of that list is the U.S. and several other countries that Harry provides details on. The important takeaway from this episode is when this is all going to occur. You will be surprised to hear his updated forecast.
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Harry S. Dent is the founder and President of the H. S. Foundation whose mission is “Helping People Understand Change”. Using exciting new research, developed from years of hands-on business experience, Mr. Dent offers a refreshingly positive and understandable view of the future.
In his book The Great Boom Ahead, published in 1992, Mr. Dent stood virtually alone in accurately forecasting the unanticipated “Boom” of the 1990s. Today he continues to educate audiences about his predictions for the next and possibly last great bull market, from late 2005 into early to mid 2010. Since 1992 he has authored two consecutive best sellers The Roaring 2000s and The Roaring 2000s Investor (Simon and Schuster).
Mr. Dent also publishes the HS Dent Forecast newsletter, which offers current analysis of economic, and financial market trends. Be sure to check out his latest book: THE GREAT DEPRESSION AHEAD
Get your special offer today of the HS Dent Forecast – Click HERE or the image below
1-Year Newsletter Plus The Debt Crisis Report – Only $279
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13 Responses to “TDI Podcast 165: Harry Dent – Depression Countdown”
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Always love hearing from Mr. Dent! One of the most rational analysts I've heard to date. Interested in subscribing to his newsletter, but the link appears to be broken.
Harry is a smart guy and a very good salesman. He makes some good points especially regarding debt and demographics, but those things can unfold slowly. Folks like John Mauldin saw the housing bubble years before it unfolded but in the meantime there were many market opportunities and trends.
Harry is saying the same stuff he said a year ago. In 2009 he was telling people to "get the hell out of stocks by the end of July", but it turns out that was a buying opportunity, not a time to sell. Just another bear fighting a trend.
Counter all of this jive with some wisdom from Brian Shannon in his great book "Technical Analysis Using Multiple Time Frames"
"Focus on the trends of the stock you are trading, not the relationship which is "supposed to be present." If you focus on theoretical relationships that many academics debate, you will often find yourself asking how the market can be so wrong."
"The point is to be aware of the anomalies present within and across different asset classes, but trade what you see, not what you think should happen.
"Only price pays, and fighting a trend based on seemingly "logical" reasoning has led many a contrarian to go out of business."
[...] LISTEN TO PODCAST NOW | LISTEN @ ZUNE – @ iTUNES [...]
Is this the same guy who wrote DOW 30,000?
What happened to that book/theory?
[...] ⁃ TDI Podcast 165: Harry Dent – Depression Countdown ⁃ http://www.thedisciplinedinvestor.com/blog/2010/06/13/tdi-podcast-165-harry-dent-depression-countdow… ⁃ Force, fear keep Iran together [...]
[...] ⁃ TDI Podcast 165: Harry Dent – Depression Countdown ⁃ http://www.thedisciplinedinvestor.com/blog/2010/06/13/tdi-podcast-165-harry-dent-depression-countdow… ⁃ Force, fear keep Iran together [...]
Andrew,
Are you really shorting the Gold Miners?
David
Yes- as a trade
I for one am thankful for Harry Dent. I read his Next Great Bubble Boom in 2005, and was long the market. I was considering purchasing a new home in 2006, but after considering his words I thankfully decided against it. The 40,000 Dow number was a "best case", as I remember around 22K was a realistic target. But because of his methodology did not take into account the gross abuses which took place in lending and unregulated markets that number obviously fell short. He was actually predicting a downturn in '07, but then a final 5th wave push into 2010. Perhaps that could have happened. I believe in the Demographic case, it just takes time to unfold. Either way, great podcast as always. I enjoy your guests and the pieces to the puzzle they offer.
1. The demographics issue isn't really new though is it? For instance the problems with social security, medicare, and medicaid have been known for some time.
2. Harry is very quick to point out any missed calls by other economists and market participants but doesn't mention his in the interviews. People are so inundated with market info that they lose track of what these guys say and he doesn't get pressed hard to prove his case in these interviews so he can talk his own book convincingly.
3. The trader/investor's job is not to try and predict what is going to occur but identify the market signals and trade in the direction with the market.
4. Harry will be right on some predictions and wrong on others. Regardless though he will make money because he's selling his books and newsletters to people who need someone to tell them what the market is going to do. By the time the outcome of any errant predictions are revealed though the investor's money has already been handed over via their subscriptions and market losses.
I bought his famous book last year. it is a good book. Timing market is difficult, Mr. Dent gives the direction of the market and it is very worth to read.
I agree his point of view: deflation is a mean thing at this momentb but I do think we will get huperinflation after deflation because of the money printing process. Gold will zooms up to $5000. Harry's explaination of money distruction is not reliable reason.
Harry's market calls have been far less than stellar. he only talks about the ones he's been close or right on. IMO he's no better than the massive amount of over-information thrown at the retail investor via CNBC, etc. that Andrew has alluded to. Also, he says golds going to bust so if you think it's going to $5,000 I don't know why you'd follow his market calls.
Enter text right here!Andrew I’ve been listening to your pod cast for well over a year, you all ways bring a sober yet sometimes a lighthearted tone to your interviews. I’m planning on going over your Dent interview again, I’m not sure about his call on gold I’m inclined to believe gold is going to $5000.00 an ounce easy, when that happens all depends on events.
In the early 1990’s I read a book called Bankruptcy 1995 by Harold E Figgie Jr. He used to head of Figgie International and was on the first deficit reduction committee back around George Senior (yes folks this deficit reduction committee is the second in about 25 years and they did zip it will be the same with this one sitting now).
The point I would like to make is Mister Figgie’s technical analysis on how we got into this debt mess in DC is spot on. He was a little under 25 years late on the date I doubt he saw near zero interest rates and two bubbles, that I think helped kick the can down the road. Mister Dent may be off on some things but his analysis is spot on.
PS love your DH unplugged show I wish John would find another partner for his No Agenda show Adam is definitely an acquired taste.