PPI – No Inflation, None Coming, But Economy is Just Fine….

March 22, 2010

It appears that PPI and CPI are under control. Somehow there is no pricing pressures being reported even though it appears that there are pricing pressures. These are the things that confuse the already confused….

While monthly the PPI (and CPI) fell, that is not the whole story…. Of course the LAZY press would want you to believe that as it is easier to believe the month-over month data and leave it at that.

PPI Falls from Lower Energy Costs
Producer prices declined 0.6% in February after increasing 1.4% in January. The consensus expected a slightly more modest 0.2% decline.

Inflation worries continue to get expunged with every data release as the movement in prices has been almost completely restricted to the energy sector.

Energy prices declined 2.9% as gasoline and home heating oil and distillates prices fell 7.4% and 5.6%, respectively. The energy decline is in-line with the 8.7% fall in crude oil prices in February.

Core prices rose in-line with consensus expectations at 0.1%. The slight increase follows a 0.3% jump in January.

Pipeline pressures were mixed as core intermediate prices increased a hearty 0.9%, but core crude prices declined 0.6%. However, given the high unemployment rate, it seems likely that producers will not be able to pass on the higher prices to consumers anytime soon.

February PPI M/M -0.6% vs -0.2% consensus, prior +1.4%
February Core PPI Y/Y +1.0% vs +1.0% consensus, prior +1.0%
February PPI Y/Y +4.4% vs +4.9% consensus, prior +4.6%
February Core PPI M/M +0.1% vs +0.1% consensus, prior +0.3%

Written by Andrew Horowitz · Filed Under Economy, Markets | 87135 Comments2010-03-22+15%3A12%3A22Andrew+Horowitz

Indicators We Are Watching: On The Precipice

March 22, 2010

We are on the precipice. Either we are going to scale that wall or we are going to fall from it. Between the health care overhaul and the impending financial reform, it has become increasingly difficult to understand what the next 1-2 years will look like.

For the most part, we can see that investors have been buying int any and all news, not matter good or bad. The VIX index is at its lowest level in long time and bullish indicators are present.

But, is it possible that a pause is coming? How fast are stocks to rise with Read more

Written by Andrew Horowitz · Filed Under Economy, MarketMash, Markets, Strategy | 87842 Comments2010-03-22+12%3A55%3A35Andrew+Horowitz

TDI Podcast 153: SHORT STARBUCKS (SBUX) Now – Behind the Numbers

March 21, 2010

Guest: Jeff Middelswart of Behind the Numbers discusses what to look for in and out of earnings reports. Short Starbucks (SBUX)… Why? We also take a look at natural Gas (UNG) as well as how the market is shaping up past the first quarter. What is Marc Faber saying? What is with Brazil and much more…

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LISTEN TO PODCAST NOW | LISTEN @ ZUNE - @ iTUNES

Jeff Middleswart received a Bachelor of Business Administration in Finance from Texas Christian University in 1989 after graduating in 2.5 years.

After college, Mr. Middleswart became the senior analyst for Barre & Company – (now Southwest Securities) – in Dallas. Barre was a boutique bond firm that traded distressed bonds. It was a leader in reorganizing Southland Corporation and Zale Corporation in bankruptcy. Mr. Middleswart wrote a competing plan of reorganization for Zale for dissenting creditors and had many aspects of the plan adopted in the final resolution.

Mr. Middleswart is often cited in numerous financial publications for his forensic research insights and perspectives. In February 2010, he became a duel employee of USA Mutuals in addition to Behind the Numbers. He is responsible for portfolio management and investment research for the two USA Mutuals funds – The Vice Fund and Generation Wave Fund. (AEROSPACE/DEFENSE · GAMING · TOBACCO · ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES

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