9 Responses to “TDI Podcast 152: My Birthday Party – Join in For Profits…”

1. David on March 15th, 2010 8:30 am

   One economist I would be interested in hearing you interview is Peter Schiff.

2. Peter Schiff on March 15th, 2010 8:18 pm

   Buy gold! The government is run by idiots! Vote for me! -done

3. Andrew Horowitz on March 15th, 2010 8:38 pm

   Peter has been on before…..
   http://www.thedisciplinedinvestor.com/blog/2008/1…

   Andrew

4. Kenneth Motl DVM on March 15th, 2010 10:20 pm

   Andrew,I thought I would comment on your discussion of Potash. Fertilizer is primarily composed of three nutrients Nitrogen (N) Phosphorus, (P), and Potassium (K). They are used by the plant for different things and are not interchangeable. Land that is deficient in any nutrient relative to the rest or to the plant's requirements would need to be replaced either through fertilization or some other crop grown on it. Nitrogen is usually the most limiting nutrient to the crop because it does not persist in the soil well, whereas P and K will persist through multiple crops. Potash as the name suggests is a primary supplier of Potassium and the use of urea does not affect the potassium levels. To my knowledge urea use does not reduce the fertility of cropland, however, if other soil nutrients are depleted, production will decrease.

   ps I tried to reply on the new comment section, but the type font was so light I could not read what I had typed. I enjoy your podcasts, here and DH unplugged. Have a good day.

5. chris on March 17th, 2010 3:04 am

   Hey Andrew,
   I have a question I hoped you could answer for the next show. What would a bond bubble look like?(some say we are in one) What would the effects be? What would happen to equities? How would it collapse, massive defaults, or just decreasing prices because of raising interest rates?
   Thanks,
   Chris

6. keirstead on March 17th, 2010 4:52 pm

   Have you ever heard of Larry Smith?
   He is a dynamic speaker and a professor at the University of Waterloo specializing in Macro-Economics.
   I can’t stress enough that he is an amazing speaker and would be a great guest on your show.

   Larry Smith profile: http://economics.uwaterloo.ca/fac-Smith.html
   Random Lecture: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-48595345…

   Cheers!
   CK

7. ShiraKashi on March 18th, 2010 9:43 am

   Andrew – Thanks for your show and efforts. Agreed, we've heard Mr. Schiff's position before.

   Where are all of you people who were whining and complaining about Andrew, Tim Sykes, and after TDI #151? I'm talking to those who were "horrified", who "got a headache" from listening, who made Jerry Springer reference. Why don't you ever write into thank him for a show where he spends 1 hour educating you and giving ideas? Why don't you have any useful ideas to present? You're not investors or traders but rather hypocrites showing up only to criticize and complain about what you don't like.

8. Fertilizer Guy on March 19th, 2010 5:24 am

   Further to Kenneth's excellent comment. Potash Corp is the dominant potash producer in the world. Yara is the spin off of North Hydro Fertilizer and is largest public nitrogen producer while Mosaic is the biggest public phosphate producer. Agrium is the balanced fund of Nitrogen, Phosphate and Potash with not only manufacturing but a sizable farm retail presence in USA, Canada and Argentina. Recently Agrium and Yara were out maneuvered by the former co-operative CF Industries for the takeover of Terra Industries. CF is now the largest North American Producer of Nitrogen fertilizer (urea, ammonia and UAN).

   But all that is old news. The real fun will be watching which Potash producer Australian miner BHP Billiton tries to take over. Agrium, Mosaic and Potash Corp are all potential targets. BHP's announcement to sink a new mine shaft in Saskatchewan is just a ploy to see which one of these will blink first. Agrium has already backed away from their greenfield potash project.

   It should also be noted fertilizer companies correlate well to the price of corn which correlates well to the price of oil.

   Finely, a significant share of the worlds Nitrogen and Phosphate production is in the hands of foreign governments and like oil can be used as a political weapon. Potash on the other hand is mostly private production but the three major Canadian producers (Potash Corp, Mosaic and Agrium) have formed an export organization called Canpotex. It is aimed purely at making the Chinese, Indians and Brazilians pay through the nose. Lately the Russians have not been playing ball on the sales side and that is the reason potash prices are off.

9. chris on March 19th, 2010 5:57 am

   Get Mish Shedlock on again, seems like it has been awhile!

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