NFP Payrolls – What is With Estimates?
March 9, 2010 2:10 pm
What is going on with economists lately? Before you answer that, it is the same affliction that we seem to see for analysts. It is the estimate-low-not-to-get-it-wrong syndrome. It is spreading like an epidemic too.
Before the numbers came out for Non-Farm payrolls ( NFP ) last Friday, expectations were all over the map. None were close though. Not even the crystal ball over at Goldman could predict that the snow storms would be an non-issue.
Prior to the report, we were saying:
Looks like the high estimate is for a gain of 30k jobs and a low estimate of -150k jobs. Some “Non-Economists” are calling for -220k. They are thinking the snow reduced payrolls as hourly people were unable to go to work which therefore were unable to collect a pay check (I would guess, not sure however).
(Click Chart to Enlarge)