NFP Payrolls – What is With Estimates?

March 9, 2010 2:10 pm

What is going on with economists lately? Before you answer that, it is the same affliction that we seem to see for analysts. It is the estimate-low-not-to-get-it-wrong syndrome. It is spreading like an epidemic too.

Before the numbers came out for Non-Farm payrolls ( NFP ) last Friday, expectations were all over the map. None were close though. Not even the crystal ball over at Goldman could predict that the snow storms would be an non-issue.

Prior to the report, we were saying:

Looks like the high estimate is for a gain of 30k jobs and a low estimate of -150k jobs. Some “Non-Economists” are calling for -220k. They are thinking the snow reduced payrolls as hourly people were unable to go to work which therefore were unable to collect a pay check (I would guess, not sure however).

(Click Chart to Enlarge)

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