SubscribeTDI Podcast 148: Harry Dent and The Great Depression Ahead
February 14, 2010 11:59 pm
Guest: Harry Dent, HS Dent and Andrew discuss demographic economics and the countries that are in danger of entering into a prolonged depression. On the top of that list is the U.S. and several other countries that Harry provides details on. The important takeaway from this episode is when this is all going to occur. You will be surprised to hear his updated forecast.
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Harry S. Dent is the founder and President of the H. S. Foundation whose mission is “Helping People Understand Change”. Using exciting new research, developed from years of hands-on business experience, Mr. Dent offers a refreshingly positive and understandable view of the future.
In his book The Great Boom Ahead, published in 1992, Mr. Dent stood virtually alone in accurately forecasting the unanticipated “Boom” of the 1990s. Today he continues to educate audiences about his predictions for the next and possibly last great bull market, from late 2005 into early to mid 2010. Since 1992 he has authored two consecutive best sellers The Roaring 2000s and The Roaring 2000s Investor (Simon and Schuster).
Mr. Dent also publishes the HS Dent Forecast newsletter, which offers current analysis of economic, and financial market trends. Be sure to check out his latest book: THE GREAT DEPRESSION AHEAD
Stock Screen discussed in this episode: Stochastics Crossing Up…Click HERE to Download (pdf)
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Example of chart pattern to look for…Click to Enlarge
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Disclosure: Horowitz & Company clients may hold positions of securities mentioned as of the date published.
Podcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 1:05:59 — 34.7MB)
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10 Responses to “TDI Podcast 148: Harry Dent and The Great Depression Ahead”
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Thanks for bringing Dent on, he's one of the best.
Also kind of nice to see someone who isn't a goldbug these days.
Andrew,
I appreciate Harry's analysis of things but sometimes I find that guys like him and Peter Schiff can get so wrapped up in their thesis that this miss other factors that if conditions change can effect what they are confident will occur. I expect he'll be right on some & wrong on others but I wouldn't follow his every word.
1. He didn't address the fact that in the spring of 2009 when he was on your show he said to "get to the hell out of the stock market by the end of July". That's the problem with trying to make predictions.
2. We are very different from Japan with innovative companies like Apple, the vast and important agriculture, resources, and farming. We are a much richer, diverse, and consuming nation than Japan. We have major problems ahead, but it's short sighted to assume we'll be just like Japan.
3. He really underestimates China. They're like the USA in the 1950s or so and he alluded to that boom age in the USA. Their recent interest rate increases are rattling some people and yet it's exactly what our Federal reserve should've done rather than listening to Greenspan babble.
4. He's assuming gold has topped. I've heard that out of people for 5years now. Gold & copper demand are higher than supply. He assumes it's because of inflation fears. While that can be a driver, look at India's recent buy from the IMF & it's effect on gold. We could see more of that.
5. With oil & other commodities he's not accounting for China's demand geopolitical conditions such as with Iran that could impact oil prices even if the USA is in a deflationary environment. He talked about oil coming down but failed to mention how it came back up. With commodities, the best cure for a low price, is a low price.
Now, regarding the Euro, Greece and the European financial system, I find it rather ironic the position they now find themselves in, taken that just a few short months ago many of these people were complaining about the weak $USD and talking about replacing it as the world's reserve currency and even making mock up coins for a "world currency".
In the book "Too Big Too Fail" by Andrew Ross Sorkin, as Geithner & Paulson were trying to get Barclays Capital to buy Lehman Bros., one of the British leaders was (rightfully) wary of the deal saying "we don't want to import your cancer". What they apparently didn't recognize or want to admit at the time is they were already infected.
The Euro & EU nations are a clear example of why we never want to be enslaved into a one world currency.
Great info!
Andrew
Thanks!
Yes I enjoyed the show, too. Maybe you should have martin weiss on…so we can see where they converge/diverge.
I listened to this podcast today, having no prior knowledge of Harry Dent. He really grabbed my attention and interest. So I went to his website to find out more about him. Surprisingly (or perhaps not), there is very little info about Mr. Dent's background on the website, but a lot of information about what he is selling. After doing some checking on other websites, he seems to me to be nothing more than a run of the mill "market prophet". He claims to have a formula which allows him to predict markets and economic trends, etc. and he highlights all his successful predictions while not mentioning all his failed predictions (like DOW 40,000). This is a hallmark of a salesman. This guy was selling optimism when it was easy to peddle, now he is selling pessimism when people are ripe for the plucking. He has had a couple predictions turn out well and make him appear special, but there is a long list of prophets and analysts who had a streak of luck which propelled them into the spotlight and rising popularity, only to be returned to mere mortal status when their luck ran out. In any case, I enjoyed the podcast – as always. Thanks.
Yes, Dent is a salesman, but in his defense, even when he was predicting Dow 40,000 (which is not that crazy when you think in log functions), he was saying that there would be a meltdown around this time. His initial call was Dow 10,000 in the early 1990s when we were in recession, and people thought he was crazy back then. He is very good on the longer term trends but weak on the timing/magnitude calls. His research on demographics and cycles is interesting and thought provoking in a good way at the very least.
The macro factors Dent addresses are facts. Who knows how his timing will be on the specifics, but I do know the market will decline significantly over the next ten years as the US delevers.
[...] 8. TDI Podcast 148: Harry Dent and The Great Depression Ahead [...]
I predicted the boom of the 2000s and a long deep recession or economic depression period starting about 2010. About 1990, I wrote a model and predictions that gives accurate predictions. The model predicts that automation, oligopoly formation, high debts, and increasing unemployment means that the US economy will get worse in 2010 and that the depressionary period will be a long one. I wrote a book about this in the 1990s.