Comments on: Quick Elliott Wave Update on the S&P 500

By: andre

andre — Tue, 12 Oct 2010 18:51:35 +0000

Corey, I agree with you. I have studied everything you can imagine, from Elliott to Fundamentals, Value Investing, technical analysis, and a lot of psychology to the markets.
What amazes me is that the high chance count, which is bullish since march 2009 (confirmed by a lot of guidelines and rules from elliott) is never mentioned, neither here, nor at Mr Prechter website, nor even Neely-wave website. As time passes by, the "old-fashined" fundamental analysts and fund managers are making the right calls for the new bull market (which in my opinion already completed wave I up, and we are probably now on wave B of wave 2, in a flat correrction). It looks like 99% of elliotticians get "married" to easy with their own thinking and forget what the market is actually DOING and telling us…
But … this is just my opinion and I wanted to share with you because your count 1 year ago was exactly the same as mine..

By: vince campillo

vince campillo — Sun, 26 Sep 2010 07:45:41 +0000

The Elliott Wave is a powerful tool and I find very accurate in forcasting price movement, but in this case, I do not believe it is applicable. The 50% retracement is also very powerful, and I beleive this approach is best for the S & P. Why? Because March of 2000, it hit 1574, then fall to 767 Oct 2002, then from there, rose to 1586 Oct 2007. If you try hard, you might be able to decifer Elliott's theory, but it is not obvious. March 2009 it bottomed at 665, Elliott's in play here, but the high of 1216, April 2010 the 50% Retracement is also in play, at 1125, and it is hovering in that area. it may fall to that 50% Ret at 940, then head back up. As I read the indicators, the Daily, Weekly and Monthly ADX are all on the postive side, so hopefully it will lean toward the long side of the equation. This is the difficult part of trading, determining which theory works best as your guide.

By: Corey

Corey — Fri, 24 Sep 2010 22:33:12 +0000

Graham, That was indeed one of the larger potential counts – that the 3 labeled in this update was actually a 5. Post written on May 8: 2009:
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/sp500-elliott-wave-…

Though the rally certainly doesn't have the feel of a Primary 1, it's within the possibilities.

Joe, agreed that TA certainly does well in identifying/quantifying risk and opportunities on the lower timeframes as traders are becoming more reactionary to technical analysis and almost 'creating' some expected moves based on self-fulfilling prophecies.

Andre,

Keep in mind that Elliott Wave is mainly used as a forecasting tool and is not the only way to view the market. I find it helpful to know what if one dominant wave count is invalidated, then it lets us know that a key change has occurred, shifting biases. It's neat when alternate accounts align with a primary count, but eventually – as time goes on – counts must be disregarded as they are invalidated.

In this case, the suggestion is that we are in a bull phase progression instead of the correction scenario, which serves to eliminate downside targets. But Elliott is only one component of market analysis and its use on the large scale certainly cycles in and out of popularity.

By: andre

andre — Fri, 24 Sep 2010 21:31:34 +0000

FUNNY!
NOW THAT THE PREFERRED COUNT WAS INVALIDATED, HE DOES NOT UPDATE THE CHART ANYMORE!!!

By: Joe D.

Joe D. — Fri, 05 Mar 2010 20:12:37 +0000

I have to say I've come along way in my belief in technical analysis – I believe its useful for finding support/resistance of individual stocks especially over shorter time frames. I believe the idea of seeing frustrated longs in the charts is obvious. However, I'm skeptical that technical analysis can be taken this far – stochastic analysis applied to a gigantic index over many years.

By: Graham

Graham — Tue, 23 Feb 2010 14:17:34 +0000

Hi Corey Rosenbloom, why do you now favor idea that the March 2009 low is the end of a wave 3, as opposed to the end of a wave 5? http://www.valtinho.com/post/A-Beginners-Elliot-W...

By: The 15 Hottest Read This Week on TDI : The Disciplined Investor

The 15 Hottest Read This Week on TDI : The Disciplined Investor — Mon, 15 Feb 2010 16:44:14 +0000

[...] 2. Quick Elliott Wave Update on the S&P 500 [...]

By: paul

paul — Tue, 09 Feb 2010 01:54:38 +0000

“Starting with the October 2007 high of 1,576, we begin the count at wave 1 while Wave 2 is the retracement higher into the March 2009 high”

March 2009 high s/b May 2008 high.