Credit Card Delinquencies – A Different View

January 22, 2010 11:20 am

Recently, we have seen a downtick in credit card delinquencies while loan provisions are ticking higher. Perhaps some of the losses are now coming off of the books and totally written off.

This is making the delinquencies look a good bit better than is actually the case. Think of it like you would the continuing claims reports. Yes, we are seeing the “official” continuing claims move lower, but if we look closer at the numbers, we can see that the addition of the total number of claims is rising.

So, we are inferring the same story may be true for credit card delinquencies when we see the rising loss provisions at JP Morgan (JPM), CitiGroup (C), Capital One (COF) among others.

Note: JP Morgan actual had higher loan loss provisions and higher delinquencies. This is another reason for the substantial sell off in JPM shares this week – (aside from the new Obama Financial Destruction Plan of course)

(30+60+90 Days)

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Disclosure: Horowitz & Company clients may hold positions of securities mentioned as of the date published.

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