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Pending Home Sales – Down How Much?

January 5, 2010 2:16 pm

As we has been expecting, there was a heavy hangover from the temporary rush for the tax credit for home-buyers that would be noticeable over the next couple of months. That couldn’t have been more accurate as expectations called for -2.0% and came in -16.0% on a month-over month basis.

That, combined with mortgage rates at a 5-month high is damping the prospects as well.

homoes MoM 20100105

On a year-over-year basis it translates to a 19.3% gain for pending home sales. That is good except economists were expecting 31%. Perhaps this is a one or two month aberration. It is possible that the rush to buy homes with the tax credit along with low interest rates provided as false sense of security to sellers.

HOMES 20100105

Factory orders were stronger than anticipated. Again, as we have discussed previously, the inventory restocking cycle could continue to provide stronger manufacturing numbers and better factory orders through the second half of 2010. It will not be a straight line and will show pockets of weakness along the way. This is playing right into our projection that the 2H of 2010 will see a downturn for most eco numbers as the cycle shifts and government spending abates.

factory 20100105

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Written by Andrew Horowitz · Category(s) Economy, Markets    |  Tags: •   

8 Responses to “Pending Home Sales – Down How Much?”

  1. Joyous about Joy Global (JOYG) – Hitting Buy Point : The Disciplined Investor on January 5th, 2010 3:14 pm

    [...] As they are also very closely related to the coal industry, the news of better than expected factory orders in the U.S. and the ever expanding manufacturing in China has played well with the share [...]

  2. Links and Reading for January 5th : The Disciplined Investor on January 5th, 2010 6:03 pm

    [...] Pending Home Sales – Down How Much? – As we has been expecting, there was a heavy hangover from the temporary rush for the tax credit for home-buyers that would be noticeable over the next couple of months [...]

  3. Oh, Joy: Joy Global Hits Buying Point | Reaction Radio on January 6th, 2010 7:41 am

    [...] As they are also very closely related to the coal industry, the news of better than expected factory orders in the U.S. and the ever expanding manufacturing in China has played well with the share [...]

  4. Transcripts on January 6th, 2010 9:17 am

    Oh, Joy: Joy Global Hits Buying Point…

    Andrew Horowitz submits: Joy Global ( JOYG ) has been benefiting from the latest run up in commodity…

  5. Rex Tillerson on January 6th, 2010 9:20 am

    Oh, Joy: Joy Global Hits Buying Point…

    Andrew Horowitz submits: Joy Global ( JOYG ) has been benefiting from the latest run up in commodity…

  6. Oh, Joy: Joy Global Hits Buying Point | Stocks and Sectors on January 6th, 2010 12:22 pm

    [...] As they are also very closely related to the coal industry, the news of better than expected factory orders in the U.S. and the ever expanding manufacturing in China has played well with the share [...]

  7. Seeking Alpha on January 7th, 2010 12:58 pm

    Oh, Joy: Joy Global Hits Buying Point…

    Andrew Horowitz submits: Joy Global ( JOYG ) has been benefiting from the latest run up in commodity…

  8. The 15 Hottest Reads on TDI This Week : The Disciplined Investor on January 11th, 2010 11:49 am

    [...] 9. Pending Home Sales – Down How Much? [...]

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