SubscribeTDI Podcast 115: Hary Dent on The Next Crash
June 29, 2009 12:01 am
Guest: Harry Dent and Andrew discuss the outlook for the markets and the global economies. We get into aging population issues and how the U.S. markets will make it through 2009.
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Harry S. Dent is the founder and President of the H. S. Foundation whose mission is “Helping People Understand Change”. Using exciting new research, developed from years of hands-on business experience, Mr. Dent offers a refreshingly positive and understandable view of the future.
In his book The Great Boom Ahead, published in 1992, Mr. Dent stood virtually alone in accurately forecasting the unanticipated “Boom” of the 1990s. Today he continues to educate audiences about his predictions for the next and possibly last great bull market, from late 2005 into early to mid 2010. Since 1992 he has authored two consecutive best sellers The Roaring 2000s and The Roaring 2000s Investor (Simon and Schuster). Mr. Dent also publishes the HS Dent Forecast newsletter, which offers current analysis of economic, and financial market trends. Be sure to check out his latest book: PREVIEW: THE GREAT DEPRESSION AHEAD
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23 Responses to “TDI Podcast 115: Hary Dent on The Next Crash”
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there's a liner on this page Sponsor: Try GotoMyPC free for 30 days! For this special offer, visit http://www.gotomypc.com/podcast, while the audio commercial advertises "go to meeting.com"…what gives? ; )
After listening to Mr. Dent, it seems difficult that one can hold any long long-term investments if you subscribe to his views
Andrew,
Harry was noticeably more animated and adamant in this interview. I was skeptical of his views initially, but as things unfold they gain more merit to me. It's amazing to see how people's views have changed. They seem to have forgotten what occurred last fall and spring and that all the problems are behind us.
When the March rally began I was pretty positive and quick to get in and made some good profits but exited all my positions too early once we hot 903 on the S&P. Now I'm looking for retracements in the area of: INDU 8000 to 7500; S&P 825 to 750; COMPQ 1600 to 1500. We've been up on air for awhile now, no volume support.
Do you have initial price projections on the INDU, S&P, & COMPQ that you are looking for once we break downward, and do you approach it swing point by swing point or do you approach it a different way?
Also, do you agree with Harry's projection of the INDU going to 4000 to 2000 range? It seems that would put the S&P at around 400-200 maybe and the COMPQ I don't know where.
Clarification: CNBC, and others have done a good job of causing many people to forget what occurred last fall and spring and to believe that all of the problems are behind us, sucking them right in to take them down again.
I bought his audio-book after hearing him on TDI several months ago.
A lot of his predictions seem to be coming true:
1) People (Europe especially) becoming more far-right and anti-immigration
2) A powerful summer bear market rally
3) Gas prices going up and up and up
4) Countries are becoming more socialistic
I'm still not buying his 8 year "terrorist cycle" though
Andrew,
I have been listening to your podcast from near the beginning and it only gets better over time. Thanks for putting the time and effort into it as it is a great resource I can turn to for new, intelligent perspectives. I can't wait to listen each week and hope you continue to provide the investing insight and coverage of the markets for a long time to come. Enjoy the holiday and I look forward to downloading the next 115 podcasts.
Clarification: Why are people in China buying jewelry. Jewelry purchases are a third world system of buying gold. It is traditional particularly in India. In some nations possession of gold coinage is illegal, so hence jewelry.
Re: Chicago Joe commented on TDI Podcast 115: Hary Dent on The Next Crash —
YOU ROCK!
Andrew
love Harry Dent- he is on the money!!!! THANK YOU YOUR THE GREATEST!!!!!
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:-)
Andrew
[...] to conservative commentary which hammers on Obama’s economic policies regularly. In case you aren’t depressed enough listen to The Disciplined Investor podcast. Hold on to your wallet while you listen to it though. [...]
Can you post a link (if possible) to the article you mention in the podcast regarding the reversing of immigration in the US? Thanks.
It is always more enriching to listen to a podcast which portrays the real picture of the economy out there or forecasts more independently than most financial analysts on these financial shows. I have just ordered Harry's book through Amazon and waiting for it to arrive so I can read it in detailed after being intrigued by some of his analyzes on the show. Keep up the good work and get more of such guests in. :)
Thanks
Will try, need to stay on top of MSM cheerleadibg
Andrew
I don't understand how Harry Dent gets such a pass. He rode to fame amidst prognostications that the DOW was headed for 30K on what seemed like very rational reasons. Of course, like many, he didn't foresee the great credit bubble, or at least grossly underestimated it. And now, its a great depression.
But, the one thing Harry Dent seems to do a great job of…Promoting himself and his ideas. I have no use for Harry Dent. Listen to him at your own risk. If he is correct, it will be an accident, and not based on his great thinking.
Which part of the analysis is incorrect? Rather than knocking it provide an alternative view or lucid contradictions?
And if his views – which make perfect sense – come to fruition how will it be an accident? That's puzzling. Rather than great thinking I would characterize it as identifying what should be obvious if you get past the smoke and mirrors.
Just to referee for a second, I believe that the Dow 40,000 by now is what is being referred to. Yes , agreed that did not occur.
Timetables are approximate ranges, use as an informational guide is what I say
Andrew
That's 2 very good webcasts in the recent past, this one and #104 with GE Griffin.
My wife got so interested in what Harry Dent had to say that I had to go order his book from Amazon.
The mark of a good interviewer is someone who lets the guest finish his thoughts but yet
manages to keep things moving. Good balance AH.
I'm hoping these comments don't die – and that we can get some honest feedback, Andrew. As I have been catching up on podcasts here and elsewhere, I find the facts as presented interesting.
1. Everyone seems to think that we aren't out of the woods – still huge risks to go
(everyone includes Harry Dent, Andrew (I think), my friends advisors for 401K's (scarbor. grp), Robert Kiyosaki and his stock and gold advisors / authors)
2. Folks are quite bearish saying that stocks will plumet — 3000 target for the Dow
3. Disagreement on gold vs. US$ — Mike Maloney seems to say that US$ and gold will track for a while, and Obama doesn't want to see Gold rise — but eventually they can't control it – says dollar will fall and gold will never fall below $1K for many many years.
4. Dent seems to say that all commodities will fall and currency and strong bonds will be strong.
5. Dent seems to say that 30 days or so could be a huge hole in the market
Andrew – Curious to know how you react to Harry and others. When do you pull out of the market – like you advised Leo and others last year (sorry I didn't take THAT advice). Also – do you believe in using Gold in a portfolio — or as a precious metal to physically hold ?
Thanks so much for the podcast. I'm back to re-read / study your book soon, as well as the Winning Investor.
Sincerely,
Chris
Chris K. – Good to hear your perspective.
In my associations, what I have noticed is quite the opposite; people are overwhelmingly bullish. Most have forgotten all about the downdrafts in October and November 2008 and March 2009 lows.
If you think back, there fear was very high and talk of a possible depression was rampant even as we hit the March lows. Now, the vast majority believe we have thanks to Mr. Bernanke and massive stimulus and bailouts averted disaster and things are stable and improving ala "green shoots". The banks earnings reports support that in their minds. Fear is low and complacency has set in.
The IBD forums are overwhelmingly bullish while back in March barely anyone wanted to discuss a stock and the Follow Through Day (FTD) was initially greeted with much disbelief after the previous repeated failures.
All of my work associates are happy again too. In March they were telling me they didn't even want to look at their 401(k) statements anymore. Now they're smiling and saying that they remember they just need to think long term. In fact 2 people who never follow the market remarked to me about the Dow the day after it was up 250+ points. Red flag!
In October 2008, Buffet was telling people to buy US stocks. Cramer was saying don't put money in the markets if you'll need it in the next 3-5 years. But in his March 9, 2009 interview with Becky Quick, Buffet said "the economy was a shambles" and he was not buying anything (right when he should've been). And for the past several weeks, Cramer is back to his pump em' up ways and thinks we're going higher.
I think Harry Dent is going to prove right on some things and wrong on others. I differ with him regarding a commodities bubble because I believe those compose things we need and because of China's huge demand. I believe he dead on with the coming problems of prime loans, credit card defaults, commercial real estate, the demographics regarding baby boomers and the spending cycle.
[...] help house prices. This is already happening in the US and you can find out more by listening to Podcast 115 on The Disciplined Investor. In Australia, Indians already feel that there is “anti-Indian” sentiment and have been [...]
His predictions are almost right. Especially about the gas prices, that raised up from 1 to 3 $ per gallon in 20 years.
Mr. Dent's books are like some kind of manuals for economy and investing. Everyone interested in these domains of money making should read them.