Comments on: Video: Supply Will Drive Oil Down http://www.thedisciplinedinvestor.com/blog/2009/06/22/video-supply-will-drive-oil-down/ Investment Disciplines and Timely Advice. Fri, 10 Feb 2012 21:15:03 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: pdy http://www.thedisciplinedinvestor.com/blog/2009/06/22/video-supply-will-drive-oil-down/comment-page-1/#comment-6837 pdy Mon, 22 Jun 2009 22:13:25 +0000 http://www.thedisciplinedinvestor.com/blog/?p=3843#comment-6837 Agree - today's fundamentals don't support $70 or the recent run up. IMO -price should stagnate short term and stay below $70 esp as the dollar continues to rise (maybe 55-70 trading range?) -any credit or earnings scare that resembles anything from last year's collapse could bring oil close to this years lows- even a bit lower HOWEVER - Long term fundamentals (say: 2-4 years - depletion, depletion, depletion) seem to remain very bullish for liquid fuels and it seems every big hedging industry (airlines, etc) is ready to pounce on any price that may give a competitive advantage I can't see oil staying too low for too long... Agree – today's fundamentals don't support $70 or the recent run up.

IMO

-price should stagnate short term and stay below $70 esp as the dollar continues to rise (maybe 55-70 trading range?)

-any credit or earnings scare that resembles anything from last year's collapse could bring oil close to this years lows- even a bit lower

HOWEVER

- Long term fundamentals (say: 2-4 years – depletion, depletion, depletion) seem to remain very bullish for liquid fuels and it seems every big hedging industry (airlines, etc) is ready to pounce on any price that may give a competitive advantage

I can't see oil staying too low for too long…

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