Browse > Home / Economy, Markets / Tides Rising under the Baltic Dry Index ($BDI)

Tides Rising under the Baltic Dry Index ($BDI)

February 3, 2009

We are covering this during TDI Podcast 88. I thought we would provide an advanced look into why we were buying Excel Maritime (EXM). The shippers have been moving sideways since we sold the position for a quick ~50% profit. Recently,m we bnought it back for clients. (See TDI Managed Growth Strategy Virtual Tour)

Here is the commentary that you will hear on TDI Podcast 88:

Evaluating the impact of infrastructure spending by President Elect Barack Obama and other nations is not easily accomplished. We could take a look at the performance or demand for commodities prices, infrastructure development stocks or even stocks that provide products such as steel, cement and machinery. The problem with those indicators is controlling the idiosyncratic or specific risks inherent with one specific company or commodity. The answer to our question may lie within the Baltic Dry Exchange.

The Baltic Dry Exchange is an exchange similar to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Chicago Board of Trade or New York Mercantile Exchange that maintains a market place of shipping routes for dry bulk cargo. The Baltic Dry Index is a price weighted measurement for the general cost of shipping or receiving raw goods. This index will give us foresight into increased demand and possible indications of infrastructure spending affecting the global marketplace. The exchange is made up of member companies that ship or intend to receive cargo, and unlike stocks, it is completely removed of speculative players. Economists believe this is the purest leading indicator as the demand for raw goods generally precedes the demand for finished goods. When companies begin demanding shipments of these raw goods then the Baltic Dry Index will trend higher due to an increase in vessels for shipment.

The index peaked around May 30th of 2008 at just over 11,400 and is now trading in the low 800s. This extreme shift in demand that began after May 30th was a good indication of where the market was headed. A decrease in the demand for raw goods from China’s build out and exports from the United States’ weak dollar came to a halt. If this index begins to trend higher then this would be a good sign of economic recovery.


Interactive Chart of the Baltic Dry Index

Related Posts:

  1. Baltic Dry Index – Moving… The Baltic Dry Index, an index that follows the cost for cargo...
  2. Indicators We Are Watching – Baltic Index Tumbles The Baltic Dry Index continues to move lower at a quick pace....
  3. Purchasing Managers Index – Rising Again The purchasing managers index has been rising at a regular clip over...
  4. Demand for Oil Continues to Slide Oil inventories released this morning continued to show a lack of demand...
  5. Economic Data Contributes to Market Strength The ISM Services Index released this morning pointed to a much better...

Written by Kevin Hoffmann · Filed Under Economy, Markets 

Comments

This website uses IntenseDebate comments, but they are not currently loaded because either your browser doesn't support JavaScript, or they didn't load fast enough.

8 Responses to “Tides Rising under the Baltic Dry Index ($BDI)”

  1. fuzzduzz on February 4th, 2009 3:19 pm

    Just wondering why you would have chosen EXM over DSX? DSX seems to have a stronger chart and as good if not better fundamentals…

  2. Andrew Horowitz on February 4th, 2009 8:56 pm

    I suppose that us is a matter if opinion

    Andrew

  3. MikeRiegger on February 5th, 2009 12:14 am

    Very nice call on EXM.

  4. Andrew Horowitz on February 5th, 2009 2:21 am

    ;-)

    Sent from my iPhone

  5. Popeye on February 6th, 2009 7:45 pm

    Is there any indexed mutual fund based on the bdi? Any mutual fund that just focuses on the Dry Bulk Carriers?

  6. Andrew Horowitz on February 6th, 2009 11:04 pm

    Mutual fund … Are you kidding?

    How about an etf? Closest is $SEA

    Check out and report back

    Andrew

  7. An Interview With A Disciplined Investor Who’s Up 15% The Last Six Months | TIM - Timothy Sykes on February 11th, 2009 8:15 am

    [...] out, a bit, on a limb to pound his Jew chest that he thought the shippers were gonna rise…namely EXM, one day before they all rose like [...]

  8. Free anal sex videos. on April 8th, 2009 6:14 am

    Anal sex….

    Anal sex. Anal sex toys the collection at xandria com. First anal sex. Asian anal sex. Black anal sex. Gay anal sex….

Got something to say?