SubscribeTDI Podcast 92: An Unavoidable Depression? (Dent and Shedlock)
January 19, 2009
Guests: Harry S. Dent Jr. and Mike “Mish” Shedlock help to uncover the market’s direction for the next few months. 
Harry provides us an important update and sobering outlook for an economy. We questions whether or not a full-blown depression in inevitable.
Mish provides us with excellent insight into the direction for the markets and a target for the S&P 500 index. We explore the recent market calls by Peter Schiff, the economic outlook and somehow we even get into a discussion about “SECx and Bernie Madoff.” Don’t miss the revealing audio from Suze Orman explaining why she is disappointed that only 1.4 million downloaded her latest (free) book.
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Harry S. Dent is the founder and President of the H. S. Foundation whose mission is “Helping People Understand Change”. Using exciting new research, developed from years of hands-on business experience, Mr. Dent offers a refreshingly positive and understandable view of the future.
In his book The Great Boom Ahead, published in 1992, Mr. Dent stood virtually alone in accurately forecasting the unanticipated “Boom” of the 1990s. Today he continues to educate audiences about his predictions for the next and possibly last great bull market, from late 2005 into early to mid 2010. Since 1992 he has authored two consecutive best sellers The Roaring 2000s and The Roaring 2000s Investor (Simon and Schuster). Mr. Dent also publishes the HS Dent Forecast newsletter, which offers current analysis of economic, and financial market trends. Be sure to check out his latest book: PREVIEW: THE GREAT DEPRESSION AHEAD
Mike “Mish” Shedlock is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. He is a regular guest on TDI Podcast and has helped thousands of listeners protect their money during these very turbulent financial times. As Mish tells us, “Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.”
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Hear Expert Insights. Make More Confident Decisions. Profit During Market Crisis. The markets and investor’s portfolios have taken a beating over the last few months.With a new president, a global economic downturn, US recession, and $700 billion government bailout, investors are left wondering—
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Comments
15 Responses to “TDI Podcast 92: An Unavoidable Depression? (Dent and Shedlock)”
Got something to say?
Andrew – excellent interviews. Thanks and keep up the great work.
I heard from someone, that back in 1999 near the market top, Harry Dent was calling for the Dow to go to 20k – 30k – or 40k. The person who mentioned this didn't remember the exact figure he had called for. Their point was that there are often calls like that at the top and calls for extremely bad things (ala Harry's book) at the lows. I don't know if Harry said this, do you? Can you check with him?
Regarding the US dollar, it has been declining from the $120 area since 2002. Treasury Secretaries past and present meanwhile have stated over and over that the US has a strong dollar policy but that is clearly not true. I say get ready for $USD to top in this $85-$86 area working its way toward $72 ( not zero though). Gold will see $1,200, maybe more because of the massive US printing.
PS – thanks for alerting people to the insanity of lazy portfolios. Since when does being lazy build the core or foundation of success in anything? It's absolutely ludicrous.
Harry did call for a market boom to start right about now. That is why I mentioned it in this episode and mentioned my epiphany. He is very smart and if you think about it., his prediction s are for a LONG period ahead of him. Not an easy task.
A
I think Mr. Dent gives his theories (demographic swifts) too much emphasis. While it is a factor it is not the driver in the current situation. Pure demographic shifts will impact the economy in a much more subtle and gradual way. What he failed to see was the debt deflation, brought on by excess leverage, which supersedes his demographic shift theories. This crisis will change the behaviors of people both old and young. People will work longer save more consume less as a result of the debt crisis not because of the demographic shifts. With all due respect to Mr. Dent I believe he is locked into selling his book and therefore married to this demographic shift paradigm.
Re: swartzfr commented on TDI Podcast 92: –
Have you read his books? They are brilliant…
Andrew
Yes I read his books.
He is very smart in his domain.
I just don't think his demographic thesis is that compelling in light of the overriding debt meltdown.
He also predicted dow 35K at one point.
What he predicts may come true but I don't think it will be due to demographics.
Much more powerful forces are now in play. Demographics are marginal.
The current drop in consumption has nothing to do with demographics.
Balance sheets are the issue.
Must be taken with a grain of salt just like Schiff.
I would have liked to hear podcast #92 but Apple would not download due to a problem on your end
Unfortunately I cannot agree more. Moreover yesterday I wasn't able to download podcast directly from this site.
All fixed now, we went to a new server
All done
Andrew
Sent from my iPhone
[...] TDI Podcast 92: An Unavoidable Depression? (Mish on Schiff) [...]
swartzfr
Take a look at the correlations of the charts in the Book the Great Bust Ahead. He based his book on one of Dent's old books and found an amazing correlation to population in the 47 to 54 age profile. You can follow that demographic profile back to the 1900s. Even through the great depression the correlation was true. The only place it didn' is in the area where birth control came into usage and that deflected the trend to a little bit later as people held off on kids.
I can't download the podcast.
WHY?
Re: Antonino commented on TDI Podcast 92: An Unavoidable Depression? (Dent and Shedlock) –
RIGHT CLICK the DONWLOAD link and SAVE AS
OR better yet, subscribe in iTunes:
http://phobos.apple.com/WebObjects/MZStore.woa/wa... />
Andrew
HARRY IS A DENT ALRIGHT = A QUACK! HE's just another $ale$per$on (they ALL lie!).
"Do the math!" : at LEAST $50,000/per lecture X 200 lectures each year = $10,000,000/year.
How many YEARS has he been lying about the DOW, etc. and to people???? 15 years? X,
well, YOU do the math…Dent obviously makes his money ripping off people. His mutual fund
tanked BBBBBAAADDDDD!
And "Harry stood virtually alone…", Andy?? shame on YOU…YOU are gullible —> "Talk is cheap."
"Words are empty without action." "If it sounds to good to be true…" = lies.
You guys are not playing with a…
I have just downloaded the podcast and i can say that i really liked it. Dent is good, but i like Mish more cause it's awesome. Thanks for giving the opportunity to download such great podcast..