Comments on: Natural Gas: Oversold and we are buying http://www.thedisciplinedinvestor.com/blog/2008/08/28/natural-gas-oversold-and-we-are-buying/ Investment Disciplines and Timely Advice. Fri, 10 Feb 2012 21:15:03 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Andrew Horowitz http://www.thedisciplinedinvestor.com/blog/2008/08/28/natural-gas-oversold-and-we-are-buying/comment-page-1/#comment-3674 Andrew Horowitz Wed, 03 Sep 2008 05:10:57 +0000 http://www.thedisciplinedinvestor.com/blog/?p=877#comment-3674 Jon: Thanks for the comment and insight, you have excellent points. Shawn: Look at the longer term and the potential for where you believe ( calculate) price to be in the future. If you have that concern about stops hitting, perhaps you may want to consider a different stock/investment. There is no rule that says you have to invest... Today was a classic short cover that faded... not encouraging. A Jon:

Thanks for the comment and insight, you have excellent points.

Shawn:

Look at the longer term and the potential for where you believe ( calculate) price to be in the future. If you have that concern about stops hitting, perhaps you may want to consider a different stock/investment. There is no rule that says you have to invest…

Today was a classic short cover that faded… not encouraging.
A

]]> By: Jon Lawson http://www.thedisciplinedinvestor.com/blog/2008/08/28/natural-gas-oversold-and-we-are-buying/comment-page-1/#comment-3672 Jon Lawson Wed, 03 Sep 2008 03:26:23 +0000 http://www.thedisciplinedinvestor.com/blog/?p=877#comment-3672 Shawn, price action around a previous low is a tell. Does the price shoot below a previous low (taking out other people's stops) and then move up. Or like today does the price drop below a previous low and close below. There is nothing to suggest we have bottomed here. Be patient (disciplined), and look for the price to find a base. At this point there are 3 tropical storms off the coast, this may cause another spike in the price, but I wouldn't be putting any significant money to the long side. I put some money to work in the form of options, however I exited half my positions for a small loss. I don't like the price action at this point. I agree with Bob that we will be using more Nat Gas in the future, but I wouldn't be buying without having a stop in place or at least a married put position to reduce my risk. best regards, Jon Breckenridge, CO Shawn, price action around a previous low is a tell. Does the price shoot below a previous low (taking out other people’s stops) and then move up. Or like today does the price drop below a previous low and close below. There is nothing to suggest we have bottomed here. Be patient (disciplined), and look for the price to find a base.

At this point there are 3 tropical storms off the coast, this may cause another spike in the price, but I wouldn’t be putting any significant money to the long side.

I put some money to work in the form of options, however I exited half my positions for a small loss. I don’t like the price action at this point. I agree with Bob that we will be using more Nat Gas in the future, but I wouldn’t be buying without having a stop in place or at least a married put position to reduce my risk.

best regards,
Jon
Breckenridge, CO

]]> By: Shawn http://www.thedisciplinedinvestor.com/blog/2008/08/28/natural-gas-oversold-and-we-are-buying/comment-page-1/#comment-3668 Shawn Tue, 02 Sep 2008 21:49:46 +0000 http://www.thedisciplinedinvestor.com/blog/?p=877#comment-3668 I'm having a hard time understanding protective stops. I look at UNG and I think a tight stop because support hasn't been established, but then I think a greater stop of about 10% would be in order because of volatility. Is there a good way of thinking with reguards to tight stops or greater stops? I have this same problem when I'm deciding to get out of a stock. I’m having a hard time understanding protective stops. I look at UNG and I think a tight stop because support hasn’t been established, but then I think a greater stop of about 10% would be in order because of volatility. Is there a good way of thinking with reguards to tight stops or greater stops? I have this same problem when I’m deciding to get out of a stock.

]]> By: Andrew Horowitz http://www.thedisciplinedinvestor.com/blog/2008/08/28/natural-gas-oversold-and-we-are-buying/comment-page-1/#comment-3665 Andrew Horowitz Tue, 02 Sep 2008 17:46:43 +0000 http://www.thedisciplinedinvestor.com/blog/?p=877#comment-3665 Bob: I would be careful, but a LONG term investor could see this as an interesting point to look to enter.... Volatility will be key.. A Bob:

I would be careful, but a LONG term investor could see this as an interesting point to look to enter….

Volatility will be key..

A

]]> By: Bob Mitton http://www.thedisciplinedinvestor.com/blog/2008/08/28/natural-gas-oversold-and-we-are-buying/comment-page-1/#comment-3664 Bob Mitton Tue, 02 Sep 2008 11:21:41 +0000 http://www.thedisciplinedinvestor.com/blog/?p=877#comment-3664 Andrew, Thanks for everything you do for the disciplined investors out there. I Love the Podcast and your site. I have been looking very closely at natural gas for quite some time and have decided to look at the ETF as a way to further diversify my portfolio. It looks like this should be a long term cyclical play as our demand for cleaner sources of energy does not look to be subsiding any time soon. The ETF has pulled back to $33.82 and looks to be oversold from where you even took your position and then prompt exit. How do you feel about where it is priced now and do you have any thoughts about where we head from here and when the fundamentals of this thesis might begin to make a turn? Your insight is greatly appreciated. Best Regards, Andrew,

Thanks for everything you do for the disciplined investors out there. I Love the Podcast and your site. I have been looking very closely at natural gas for quite some time and have decided to look at the ETF as a way to further diversify my portfolio. It looks like this should be a long term cyclical play as our demand for cleaner sources of energy does not look to be subsiding any time soon. The ETF has pulled back to $33.82 and looks to be oversold from where you even took your position and then prompt exit. How do you feel about where it is priced now and do you have any thoughts about where we head from here and when the fundamentals of this thesis might begin to make a turn? Your insight is greatly appreciated.

Best Regards,

]]> By: Jon Lawson http://www.thedisciplinedinvestor.com/blog/2008/08/28/natural-gas-oversold-and-we-are-buying/comment-page-1/#comment-3640 Jon Lawson Sat, 30 Aug 2008 00:57:52 +0000 http://www.thedisciplinedinvestor.com/blog/?p=877#comment-3640 Option volatility was at its high of the year on Friday. It may continue on monday. It led to a number of fine bullish premium selling strategies. Selling put spreads, Broken Wing Butterflies, and balanced butterflies. Thanks for the heads up on this opportunity. Option volatility was at its high of the year on Friday. It may continue on monday. It led to a number of fine bullish premium selling strategies. Selling put spreads, Broken Wing Butterflies, and balanced butterflies.
Thanks for the heads up on this opportunity.

]]> By: DAVE MAY http://www.thedisciplinedinvestor.com/blog/2008/08/28/natural-gas-oversold-and-we-are-buying/comment-page-1/#comment-3637 DAVE MAY Fri, 29 Aug 2008 14:51:36 +0000 http://www.thedisciplinedinvestor.com/blog/?p=877#comment-3637 what effect will the huricane(s) this wk end have on the price of Nat gas? what effect will the huricane(s) this wk end have on the price of Nat gas?

]]>