Natural Gas: Oversold and we are buying

August 28, 2008

* Recently, we bought U.S. Natural Gas Fund (UNG) for The Disciplined Investor Managed Growth Strategy portfolios…

Below is an interesting graphic that shows the effect on energy commodities by the legislation that closed the Enron Loophole. Even though there has been a great deal of discussion concerning the supply and demand factor, specifically related to China, it is clear that since July, the precipitous fall of energy commodities is not due to a reduction in demand. Supply/Demand had little to do with what occurred. It was rampant manipulation and speculation, and this graphic provides more proof.

The chart shows the percentage change of the three energy related ETFs (funds) that track natural gas, crude oil and heating oil. Of those, natural gas has fallen the greatest amount (37% down) as is appears that it is not the main target of speculators any longer. Read more

Strategy Lab: Screening for Losers

August 27, 2008

Note: All MSN Strategy Lab entries are not to be considered a recommendation. These are notes/orders that were sent in for the MSN Strategy Lab editors for the use with my specific contest portfolio.

* Buy 300 shares of United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) with a limit of $40 and a protective sell stop at $36.90. Enter buy transaction after 10:30am ET.

When I was growing up, I can recall that the official end of summer was signified by a Labor Day barbecue where we would gather and watch the MDA Telethon hosted by Jerry Lewis. It was the last memory before school started and the fiscal work year began.

For many investors, this will come as a relief. The summer has been brutal. From June 1 to Aug. 26, the Dow Jones industrials ($INDU) fell more than 8%, while the Dow Europe Index dropped more than 15%. At the same time, the price of oil dropped 8% as speculators ran from the coming storm of legislative action squarely aimed at controlling rampant manipulation done through unregulated exchanges.

Read the rest of the article and get a screening criteria to search for potential stocks to short.

The Week Ahead: Size matters, but does Sears?

August 25, 2008

MSN Money TopStocks

It is no secret that markets have been tough for everyone and on Friday, Chairman Bernanke said, ” the crisis is softening growth, raising joblessness, and the Fed’s job is one of the most challenging in memory”. At the same time, he believes that the recent trend of the dollar will likely slow inflation. The market took that as good news and a reason to raise stocks and crush oil. Read more

The Most Pathetic Barron’s Article Ever

August 24, 2008

Entitled : How to Simplify Your Stock Research, Barron’s author Mike Hogan attempts to deliver an article to  provide some help when researching stocks, yet it does nothing of the sort. Instead it discusses how Google Docs can be used to gather information and Google’s Notebook is a good organizational tool. Read more

TDI Episode 71: The Dick and The Lehman

August 24, 2008

Guest: Mish Shedlock and Andrew discuss Fannie, Freddie and the market direction. We take apart Ladenburg Thalmann’s banking analyst Dick Bove and look at Cramer’s recent discussion about the Fed, SEC and the markets.

Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. As Mish tell us, Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.


We are both amazed that Bove expects Lehman Brothers (LEH) to “shrink about $100 billion off of its assets” and that the investment bank is “stable enough to go through a tough environment.” Bove, speaking at the Reuters 2008 Investment Outlook Summit in New York on Wednesday, also said that it will be at least “three to four years” before Lehman is once again a “vibrant, growing company.”DICK Bove

What is really confusing is that Bove has recently upgraded Lehman. It is important to remember that a few months ago, he had suggested that we should all start to once again buy financial stocks as they have hit bottom. EXCELLENT TIMING, MR. BOVE – What should we do now?

Andrew also looks at the Cramer commentary from this week and how Cramer is suggesting that the market is rigged. If this is the case, how does buy-and-hold make any sense???

Stocks Discussed: General Motors (GM) Ford (F) Lehman Brothers (LEH) Citigroup (C) Wachovia (WB) Washiongton Mutual (WM) Capital One Financial (COF) MasterCard (MA) Potash (POT) Mosiac (MOS) Freddie Mac (FRE) Fannie Mae (FNM)

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