Dendreon’s News – Good Spin, No Spunk

March 12, 2008

Dendreon (DNDN) is one again in the news. At first, it appears that there is a faster track that the FDA is allowing when it comes to the trials for Provenge. If you read the news item it is really nothing significant, yet it is may be a hint that the FDA is softening and may allow for study results to be moved up a year.

None of the informations appears to change any of the results we have seen thus far. It simply allows for the removal of the results within the test-group that show a false-positive return. In other words – the results that are meaningless are being removed from the test group. This should be a common practice, so any excitement created by inferring more from the news should be contained.

Shares are up in pre-market today on this announcement by 15% or so.

This particular topic will be in focus during our upcoming podcast conversation with Mike Huchman, CNBC’s health correspondent.

StreetInsider.com – Dendreon (DNDN) Said FDA Amends SPA on IMPACT clinical trial of PROVENGE

March 12, 2008 7:42 AM EDT Dendreon Corporation (Nasdaq: DNDN) said the FDA has agreed to an amended Special Protocol Assessment for the Phase 3 IMPACT clinical trial of PROVENGE. In addition, the FDA has reconfirmed that they would accept a positive interim or final analysis from the IMPACT trial to amend the Biologics License Application for licensure of PROVENGE. The amended SPA accelerates the expected timing of the final IMPACT results by approximately one year while maintaining comparable powering of the study’s interim and final results. By increasing the number of events and decreasing the alpha (false positive error) spending function for the interim analysis, the Company is able to reduce the number of events for the final analysis (from 360 to 304) and still maintain a comparable statistical power for both the interim and final analyses. Interim results are still expected in the second half of 2008; however, final results are now expected in the second half of 2009 rather than 2010.

In another spin, there are news reports that read: “U.S. health regulators approved its amended trial design of the late stage study of its Provenge cancer vaccine, accelerating the expected timing of the final study results by about one year.”

The fact that the first few words read : U.S. health regulators approved is a magnificent spin, so don’t get caught in this trap. We need to see a real result and change to the FDA position, which is not contained in this news item. While it may show some level of advancement, it may be a good idea to watch for further results.

Disclosure: Horowitz & Company clients are LONG DNDN as of publish date..

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5 Responses to “Dendreon’s News – Good Spin, No Spunk”

  1. DNDN Follower on March 12th, 2008 8:54 am

    Does anybody know if the interum analysis typically has a higher burden of proof (p-value) than the final analysis?

  2. Richard Lake on March 12th, 2008 9:50 am

    Scary isn’t shory!

  3. Andrew Horowitz on March 12th, 2008 10:00 am

    Richard:

    English?

  4. DNDN Update « Phil’s Back-Up Website on March 12th, 2008 7:08 pm

    [...] Dendreon’s News – Good Spin, No Spunk [...]

  5. Dan on October 8th, 2008 1:14 pm

    The Unreachable Availability of Provenge

    Terminal patients are those who are not expected to live due to usually illness such as advanced cancer. If the patient has 6 months or less to live, those patients are considered terminally ill. Regardless, if a patient is terminal, they are without a cure or a tolerable treatment for their illness. Since such The patients will likely die in a short period of time, treatment options, even if unproven, are often desired by such patients. This is understandable, because at such a severe stage of illness, such as prostate cancer, possible extension of their lives with comfort is worth it to them, regardless of lack of evidence of proof of whatever treatment that may be advantageous to them regarding these issues. The FDA, however, claims authority on the treatment options of such patients, although that administration has proven itself over the years to be rather inadequate with its frequent drug recalls and black box warnings, and they do these things only under pressure from the public, usually. So, the FDA may not be an ideal judge regarding such issues as treatment options for very sick patients.
    Prostate cancer is rather frequent, with between 10 to 20 percent of men predicted to acquire the disease during their lifespan, resulting in about 30,000 deaths a year from this disease. It is the third most common cancer one can acquire, and the United States has the most cases diagnosed n the world, which usually strikes men past the age of fifty. One million do have prostate cancer in the United States, and about thirty thousand will die from the disease each year. Furthermore, there are different stages of prostate cancer, and the more severe the prostate cancer cases are, the higher of what are called Gleason Scores will be, and the severe cases are the most difficult to treat, of course.
    Yet innovation still exists in medicine. A few years ago, a small Biotechnology company called Dendreon was working on a conceptually new treatment for the worst prostate cancer patients, and this treatment therapy created by Dendreon was named Provenge. Provenge is the first immunotherapy biologic treatment for the progressed prostate cancer patients. Usually, these patients are unresponsive to usual treatment methods for prostate cancer, and are left with chemotherapy, specifically a hazardous drug called Taxotere, as their only treatment option at such a traumatic stage of prostate cancer. Understandably, most patients at this stage refuse treatment entirely, largely due to the brutal side effects of such chemotherapy treatments as Taxodere, which include cytotoxic side effects and haematological adverse events. The immunotherapy method developed by Dendreon requires the removal of white blood cells of the diseased patient and, after altered, are re-injected into this patient now designed to attack within the diseased body what is called PAP, which is on prostate cancer cells only. This treatment requires only three such injections in a period of six weeks. This results in life extension twice that of Taxodere, and Provenge is free of the discomfort of the only other treatment of Taxotere. The medical community and survivors of prostate cancer were elated and waited with great anticipation for access to this treatment method.
    Fortunately, as the years passed, Provenge, by 2007, had convinced others of its safety and efficacy in its benefit for severe prostate cancer patients. This caused great joy to such patients and their families. Perhaps greater elation was experienced by the caregivers and specialists of such a disease, such as Urologists and other caregivers who treat such patients. While Provenge was on fast track status at this time at the FDA, as they at the time agreed with the benefits of this new therapy, the FDA panel recommended with clarity the approval of Provenge based on its proven and superior efficacy and safety that was demonstrated in its trials, as they announced in March of 2007. Lifespan extension of severe prostate cancer patients was twice as long with Provenge versus Taxotere, which is the only other treatment indicated for this stage of prostate cancer that had only superficial efficacy, and is free of the toxic effects of this chemotherapy agent.
    Now for the bad news: With great shock and surprise, the FDA agency rejected the approval of this great treatment for very sick patients due to, they said, ‘lack of data’ in May of 2007. This contradicts their favorable opinion of Provenge weeks before delivering this terrible news. Especially when one considers the FDA Commissioner is a prostate cancer survival himself! Many found this ruling completely unbelievable.
    Soon after this judgment was passed by the FDA, conflicts of interest were discovered by others. For example, a member of the FDA agency who was evaluating Provenge, Dr. Scher, was found to have a financial commitment to a future competitor of Provenge that was being produced by a company called Novacea, and this company had signed a co-promotion agreement with Schering to provide support for this similar prostate cancer drug treatment being developed by this company. Dr. Scher never disclosed this conflict during the approval process of Provenge. As it turns out, this anticipated prostate cancer drug made by Novacea was discovered to have serious flaws, and Schering pulled out of the agreement with Novacea. In addition to this incident and before May of 2007, baseless letters were anonymously delivered to the FDA stating negative qualities about Provenge that were without Merit and speculative claims about the treatment were fabricated in these letters, it is believed Oncologists were speculated to lobby and pressure the FDA not to approve Provenge due to anticipated revenue loss. Yet overall, the disapproval by the FDA of Provenge angered and saddened many, and a newly formed advocacy group called Care to Live filed a lawsuit against the FDA for their clear lack of etiology for not approving Provenge, as they should have, according to the data about the therapy last year.
    Terminal patients, I surmise, desire comfort during their progressive disease that has placed them in the last chapter of their lives, and certainly should have a right to choose any treatment that possibly could benefit them. Clearly, because of their lack of desirable and beneficial treatment options, most are willing to assume any risks of unapproved, yet potentially and likely beneficial treatments such as Provenge. Because they have a terminal illness, these benefits provided by Provenge take priority over any possible safety issues of unapproved treatments for them. The controversy could be concluded by a terminal patient signing a waiver of some sort, perhaps, stating that they are responsible for the consequences of an unapproved treatment regimen such as Provenge. Yet the FDA, with reckless disregard and with deliberate intent, denied what likely was a great treatment therapy for these very ill patients. Several have concluded that the FDA ultimately harmed others more by not approving Provenge, or offering any valid explanations explaining their action. Thier action was irrational, as one considers the agreement of the FDA and others regarding the need of the benefits provided by Provenge for the sickest of the sick with advanced prostate cancer.
    The FDA does in fact presently have the ability to grant what is called conditional approval for such treatment methods as Provenge at this time, and why they have not remains completely unknown. What is known is that they are accelerating and worsening the illness, an illness the FDA pledged to protect so long ago. So now the FDA appears to be a bought, corrupt, and incompetent administration without loyalty and dedication to the public and its health, but with what appears to be overt collusion with venture capitalists and corporations. This needs to be corrected in any way possible for the lives of others- regardless of their own present health state today. Because of the FDA’s flaws in the past regarding drugs taken off the market along with increasing black box warnings of other drugs, which happens often with both, the individual should be the deciding factor in such matters of deciding thier treatment course presently, along with their health care provider, due to this unreliable administration called the FDA.

    “Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.” — Aldous Huxley

    Dan Abshear

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