A Picture Tells a Thousand Points

March 11, 2008 1:19 am

The quick and the dirty of it: The markets (DJIA, S&P500, NASDAQ) are setting up for an ugly fall and investors are sensing it. The growing indigestion is pointing straight toward the support line of 11,635 for the DJIA. This particular point is a problem as there is no support shown during the past 2 years until it reaches 10,683. Also, a simple Fibonacci retracement (blue horizontal lines) shows that the DJIA has stayed close to the retracement points rather consistently.

That said, unless we see intervention that is decisive and convincing by the Fed, a breakdown is inevitable. Earnings, news and recent policy has not done anything to support the averages. This time, we need to see a full-court press that is a unified effort between monetary policy and government initiatives. Anything less that a miraculous plan pulled from Lincoln’s hat will be met with negativity.

(click to enlarge chart)
Dow Crash 2008 ?
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