Comments on: Update – Don’t get caught with your Crocs Down

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By: Brown

Brown — Mon, 17 Jan 2011 13:26:13 +0000

I agree there is alot of emotions in part from us longs, but its unfortunatly easy to fall into the trap of quick growth

By: Семен

Семен — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 23:34:32 +0000

Спасибо. Прочитал с огромным интересом, и вообще полезный у Вас блог

By: SAMMY

SAMMY — Sun, 03 Aug 2008 08:22:55 +0000

BUY CROX !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! EVERYBODYS TALKING BAD ABOUT THE STOCK, FIRST TRY THE SHOES, THEIR GREAT !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ONCE WALL STREET STARTS TO TALK GOOD ABOUT CROX IT WILL RETURN BACK TO 40 – 50 DOLLARS A SHARE QUICKLY, WAKE UP WALL STREET AND STOP DOWNING STOCKS.

By: The Sharks are Feeding on Crocs

The Sharks are Feeding on Crocs — Tue, 06 Nov 2007 04:43:59 +0000

[...] was different. It was only a few months ago that I warned about the over-valuation of the stock and that $40 was going to be a price to watch for if the stock did not meet investor’s expectations. [...]

By: Andrew Horowitz

Andrew Horowitz — Wed, 10 Oct 2007 16:30:52 +0000

Good point WARN….. Changed from “out of” to (Wait, didn’t they declare bankruptcy or?). Thanks….

By: Warn

Warn — Wed, 10 Oct 2007 14:59:22 +0000

FYI: Levitz doesn\’t make furniture and they aren\’t out of business. And they\’re privately held, so as an allegory, not so bueno.

By: Pig

Pig — Tue, 09 Oct 2007 15:45:24 +0000

I don’t feel slaughtered.

By: Andrew Horowitz

Andrew Horowitz — Thu, 27 Sep 2007 00:18:44 +0000

We have been short and covered several times since this post .
u really think we did not cover when it plummeted in august?
come on…nice try!

By: JJ

JJ — Wed, 26 Sep 2007 23:58:39 +0000

How’s that short looking now? LOL

Better cover before another blowout!

By: Andrew Horowitz

Andrew Horowitz — Thu, 16 Aug 2007 00:49:00 +0000

The pigs got slaughtered…..

By: Mark

Mark — Fri, 27 Jul 2007 18:54:41 +0000

I’m not an investment advisor, but I’d get the hell out while you still can.

I’ve been long on crox for 9 months and I’ve heard the exact same story over and over by doubters who are shorting the stock: it’s a fad that’s about to play out, too much insider selling, knock offs are going to kill the company…171% later and I’m still long and I can only imagine the pain that shorts are feeling.

Why? While the stock is not cheap anymore, but it’s not expensive yet. It’s only selling at 26 times FY2007 earnings and it’s PEG ratio (assuming 25% growth, which is ambitious, but still way below the massive growth they are STILL experiencing and below the 35% they are projecting for next year) is still low at about 1.10.

Crox did this quarter what they’ve done for the past 6 (at least) quarters; they underpromised and overdelivered. They keep beating earnings by 25% or more then guiding future estimates another 25% higher. Will they always do this? Duh, no way. But if they do this even once more next quarter…ouch, babe.

Again, I’m long on crox, but I’d advise getting out.
1) You are betting against a great product that people love. I’m only an amateur, but it makes more sense to short bad products that people don’t like.

2) You are betting against a company that is still executing beautifully. From a superb manufacturing process, to more and more licensing deals, to new styles, to profitable accessories…again, why not bet against a struggling company?

By: MAtt

MAtt — Fri, 27 Jul 2007 02:19:47 +0000

wow earnings clobbered me..should i cover, or wait this one out????

By: Mark

Mark — Fri, 27 Jul 2007 01:23:20 +0000

Once again insider selling proves to be an almost completely useless tool for stock picking. Its never worked for me and in the case of crox has led countless shorts to big losses.

I trimmed my position by almost half this morning when it hit 50…oh well, hindsight is always 20/20…but I’m still long.

By: Bo Mueller

Bo Mueller — Thu, 26 Jul 2007 22:04:29 +0000

Andrew…don’t fight the momo. A huge beat and a huge guide up. These people are printing money.

By: Andrew Horowitz

Andrew Horowitz — Sat, 21 Jul 2007 03:38:36 +0000

CHRIS:

Very smart. Nice to hear a sensible and level headed approach to this BULL RUN!

By: chris NY

chris NY — Sat, 21 Jul 2007 03:32:42 +0000

well iv been long on crox for sometime now, but after the google and cat quarterly report i have become a bit defensive on this one. Yes i agree there is alot of emotions in part from us longs, but its unfortunatly easy to fall into the trap of quick growth. Thankfully goog and cat have awaken a reality that if this thing misses numbers, us long could be down for a quick drop. i still own shares but have reduced my position with good gains. Im holding a position in case they do meet numbers and this things will fly-guess we will wait for earnings to settle this one! heck i might take a small short position just to hedge before earnings

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