SubscribeCNBC Portfolio Challenge Results - Week #1
March 11, 2007
After the first full week, our portfolio was up a total of $120,000*. That is a 12% GAIN in a week that was rather volatile. There were a few losers, but the worst was a 3% overall loss on Heely’s (HLYS) when it took a $3 plunge on an earnings disappointment. The best gain was a $61,000 profit from Chicos FAS which showed a better than expected earnings report for the quarter.
I have said that the contest is part luck and a smidgen of skill as the “investors” cannot sell a position intra-day and all buys and sells are done at the close of the market day - 4 pm. Even so, the strategy of looking for overnight moves paid off and took the portfolio up nicely and earned us a ranking of #1992, or the TOP 1% of all portfolios. (There are well over 250,000 entrants for the first week.)
Next week, we will continue with the same strategy and see how it plays out.
*Gain = $118,270 plus $2,000 bonus
The Disciplined Investor Podcast - Episode 2
March 10, 2007
Episode 2 - Tax Tips, CNBC Market Challenge and Financial Hosts with the Most (not)
In this episode Andrew discusses some important tax tips that can help you save some money on your 2006 return. In this post is a list of the specific items mentioned in the podcast. Also discussed is the CNBC Market Challenge that has been heavily publicized.
The CNBC Market Challenge began Monday March 4th and has over 500,000 participants. With a weekly prize of $10,000 and a grand prize of $1,000,000, there is sure to be some excitement. BUT, the way that the contest is being run does not create a real trading environment. More is discussed about the failure of the challenge to meet expectations. Even so, Andrew has ended up in the top 1% for the week (yes the TOP 1%)
Finally, Andrew looks at the new wave of market reporters that haver become overnight experts and stars. In a dramatic shift, the people who report have become the ones that are being listened to for advice. Take a look back at the 2000 market when Jim Cramer (of Mad Money Fame) spoke to a group in New York about the new economy and the top ten stocks to own. Actual audio from the speech is included and discussed. Amazing, but true!
Herd on the Media (Yes Herd!)
March 7, 2007
There is way too much weight put on the comment of only a few that are in the media limelight. Remember, only a few years back, some of these same individuals were actually fired from their TV and RADIO positions because they were found to be profiting from their own comments.
While there are also excellent commentators and hosts, none of them are a replacement for individual research. Herd mentality has been in play for some time and that is one of the serious drivers to this markets volatility, Looking long term, some of the more popular comments made recently on a few of of the more popular shows have been merely reaction to what happened rather than forward looking. All of a sudden everyone is saying that they felt that we were in all saying that we were well overdue for a correction. COME ON!
I cannot remember a single significant comment prior to last Tuesday for anyone predicting a big drop. It is easy to be a wall street deckchair quarterback.
And when did the TV and radio hosts become the experts? I thought they were there to report, not to advise.
Let’s not feed into the medias own excitement about themselves.
Take a listen to Episode 2 of The Disciplined Investor Podcast for more on this rant. You will even hear an actual taped conference where Jim Cramer gave 10 stocks to own for the new millennium. That was in March of 2000, seven years ago. See what he predicts (it is scary!)
Henny Penny and Ignoring History (1929)
March 6, 2007
It now has become a bit surreal to watch these markets have such a profound reaction to events that are, well, petty. While the Hang Seng and the European markets have suddenly and viciously slumped, investors in the US markets have succumbed to the old Henny Penny attitude that the sky is falling. Even though there has not been a significant change in the underlying economics, there has been a change in investor sentiment. Where is the love?
Mr. Bigshot just cannot leave well enough alone. Every time the party seems to get going, he is the one that goes and pulls the fire alarm. What a party-pooper! Again, the question that begs to be asked is WHY NOW? The answer may be a bit disconcerting… Read more
Dow Jones Outlook after Meltdown
March 3, 2007
The reality is that aside from a very timid investment climate, it looks like this is nothing beyond a bit of pressure being relieve from a market that has been so tame for so long. Let’s face it, th fact that China had a moderate meltdown last week is not cause fo panic here.
The NYSE is clearly going to have their hands full with figuring out what happened on Tuesday.
Comment below on what you think is going to happen next week.
Market UP, Market DOWN, CORRECTION or OTHERWISE.
Posted in Google Finance in March 3, 2007
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